If there is a near-term trend in coffee, I would say it has to still be down. There have been up-blips, but none of them has shown any followthrough in any underlying buy-side demand mechanism.


This is a larger up-move than we've had recently, but the number of downtrend traders who had to flatten out shorts, and the number of systems that would treat this as an upside breakout, would have to be enormous, and could themselves account for 80% of the move they are reacting to.


Of course, this is the first time buyers have had two misses in a row - one at the beginning of December and one at the beginning of March -without the second one coming at a lower price, in a while.


I would buy it here if it goes sideways, or if it, like, closed two days above 58. Or, if it washes people down and out from here, I would buy it if it inches its way back up to here. So yeah, I'd call this an uptrend if I could have gotten in sooner (to front-run the current crop), but at this point I'd rather wait to see if the current longs hold.


But, if it goes back down to where people actually get a chance to buy - something more buy-opportunity-creating than a one-day shakeout and reversal - is the last time I'd be eager to bet on an uptrend that has already begun. This may just be a natural place for selling to taper itself off, and we could expect a choppy interleave of buyers, developing for various reasons, coming in.


But I want some proof that the sellers can't be manufactured in a heartbeat, and I'd rather see the people who make coffee wither a little longer, to make prices like 70 and 80 harder to jump on. Course, like I said, once it went dead, might have been a good time to start fishing for just the kind of quick uo-blip we've had.


So give it another day for the system action to sort itself out, and see what happens, where.


eLROY