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Forum: Probability 09-04-2005, 05:26 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 30
Posted By Lexander
Re: Follow-up question

You got an R^2 of .99 (or was it just R) on real baseball data using multiple regression? That tends to be a bit on the high side.

After thinking about what you are doing, are you plotting the...
Forum: Probability 09-03-2005, 03:36 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 30
Posted By Lexander
Re: Having trouble coming to terms with Pokermods.com\'s odds tables.

Thinking about it, they are reporting the correct number, though I think in truth the percentage is confusing.

Odds are defined as the P/1-P where P is the probability of the event happening.
...
Forum: Probability 09-01-2005, 01:18 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 32
Posted By Lexander
Re: amarillo slim\'s favorite bet

*smiles*

Fair enough BruceZ, wasn't trying to rain on your parade. Just figured it might be interesting to consider that the actual chance might be higher and favor the bet even more.
Forum: Probability 09-01-2005, 01:05 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 32
Posted By Lexander
Re: amarillo slim\'s favorite bet

Admittedly, I was just being picky, but when somebody takes into account leap year, they are trying for an exact calculation. The problem is that the exact calculation makes an assumption that is...
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 09-01-2005, 12:51 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 9
Posted By Lexander
Re: % of religious and smart people vis a vis Hurricane Katrina?

The two groups are not necessarily mutually exclusive, something almost implied by the topic.

I am a Christian, and I do consider myself intelligent by some measure. I do accept that the...
Forum: Probability 08-31-2005, 10:51 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 32
Posted By Lexander
Re: amarillo slim\'s favorite bet

I won't agree completely that this is the correct number. The calculation is fine, but the assumption of equally distributed birthdays is invalid (amusingly, this very topic was recently discussed in...
Forum: Probability 08-27-2005, 03:45 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 42
Posted By Lexander
Re: Question for BruceZ (or others) regarding streaks

If you are willing to accept an approximation (which I personally have no problem with), then you might as well get your answer by simulation.

Personally, I wish I was more comfortable with...
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 08-24-2005, 09:31 PM
Replies: 64
Views: 9
Posted By Lexander
Re: Am I stupid? I can\'t fit these two concepts into any type of harmo

Question for the probabilist, since my Prob Theory course hasn't covered this yet (we are still at the beginning discussing Borel sets and sigma-fields, so allow some room for utter confusion in your...
Forum: Probability 04-04-2005, 07:35 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 29
Posted By Lexander
Re: 8 Folds to the SB

Depends on the players, but generally that the chances the SB has a better hand does improve in some way after 8 folds. Whether the improvement has any significance is something I am not prepared to...
Forum: Probability 04-03-2005, 04:08 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 24
Posted By Lexander
Re: The purity of probability?

It should say something about probability theory that generally everything is developed from the Kolmogorov Axioms (which say nothing about how you actually determine the value of P(A)). Even then,...
Forum: Poker Theory 03-31-2005, 07:11 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 38
Posted By Lexander
Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

Some people are luckier than others. It is just inherent in randomness and nothing anybody can do anything about.

It is also fundamentally meaningless, and should have no bearing on your play....
Forum: Probability 03-31-2005, 02:42 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 31
Posted By Lexander
Re: Probability of 100BB Downswing

Looks like jason1990 proposes a pretty good line of attack from my perspective.

I haven't taken a time series course, or else I would try to contribute a bit more, but I would think a time series...
Forum: Probability 03-30-2005, 03:13 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 31
Posted By Lexander
Re: Exchange Paradox

There is some of this topic in "Statistical Inference" (Casella & Berger 2002, p 203). That text lists some other good discussions of the issue.

I agree the problem is in the incorrect...
Forum: Probability 03-29-2005, 03:30 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 29
Posted By Lexander
Re: march madness probability?

There isn't going to be a nice, perfect answer to this.

Since you have to get 63 distinct events correct, you could in theory assign a probability of getting each one right, and then multiply them...
Forum: Probability 03-25-2005, 07:49 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 31
Posted By Lexander
Re: Why is 10,000 hands too small?

[ QUOTE ]

There is a fundamental equivalence between hypothesis testing and confidence intervals (DeGroot p. 482)


[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe. True, and you win. I personally find it easier to think...
Forum: Probability 03-24-2005, 09:33 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 31
Posted By Lexander
Re: Why is 10,000 hands too small?

Ya, I realised that driving home, and then crashed after class. I knew something was wrong but hadn't pinned it down.

That I suppose addresses much of the question. The estimated standard...
Forum: Probability 03-24-2005, 02:35 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 31
Posted By Lexander
Re: Why is 10,000 hands too small?

Thank you for comments Paul.

Alright, I suppose that raises some other things.

If 15-20BB is in fact a reasonable estimate of the Standard Deviation after 100 hands, then the SD per hand should...
Forum: Probability 03-24-2005, 09:01 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 31
Posted By Lexander
Why is 10,000 hands too small?

I ask this mostly because I am curious and more experienced minds than me can address it.

I have at times read some discussions about how valid your BB/hr rate is for 10,000 hands. What I am...
Forum: Probability 03-24-2005, 07:41 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 27
Posted By Lexander
Re: Beaten by Quads 3 times in 80 hands...

Need more information to make a reasonable calculation (how many players, type of game, etc).

Philosophically, however, the odds that somebody will get beaten by Quads 3 times in 80 hands is...
Forum: Probability 03-22-2005, 12:34 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 25
Posted By Lexander
Re: How much does this screw up my SD calculations?

Your SD calculations will be assuming independence, when in fact your data is highly correlated. Correlated data has higher variance than uncorrelated data. So, without thinking too hard about the...
Forum: Poker Theory 03-19-2005, 01:57 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 40
Posted By Lexander
Re: How confident can Little Johnny be in Confidence Intervals??

Jinx11,

Elaborating on some of your questions.

First, a CI does not assume a Normal Distribution. If I wanted a CI for the variance I would use a Chi-Squared Distribution much of the time.
...
Forum: Poker Theory 03-17-2005, 11:27 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 40
Posted By Lexander
Re: How confident can Little Johnny be in Confidence Intervals??

Just adding a few thoughts.

A CI is not quite the same as a pure probability calculation. If all the underlying assumptions used to calculate the CI are correct, the actual estimated parameter...
Forum: Probability 03-16-2005, 12:18 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 27
Posted By Lexander
Re: A very simple problem

[ QUOTE ]


This is another question that can be answered with super easy math (read: non-combinations)

It's 1 in 26 that you get a specific card in holdem. Multiply this by itself, and you've...
Forum: Multi-table Tournaments 10-24-2004, 06:21 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 7
Posted By Lexander
Is an EV Calculation Really Appropriate For Tourneys?

A common argument I hear stated for the benefits of playing tournament Poker is that a good player has a higher EV for tournaments than for a regular ring game. I can accept easily that a truly great...
Forum: Beginners Questions 05-19-2004, 08:24 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 30
Posted By Lexander
Re: the merits of J 10 preflop

My advice is to both fold JTo but beware whenever the board is such that JT will produce the nuts (Q98) since so many people play it.

I think Jones was trying to talk about a single marginal hand...
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