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Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 07:21 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

[ QUOTE ]
OK you guys are killin me!

Did he win the bet or not?

Simple answer!

[/ QUOTE ]

No. His friend won the bet:
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 07:14 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
personally, i think your posts showed as much disrespect to the original poster as mine did towards you, and that is the reason i adopted that tone in the first place.

[/...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 06:12 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

[ QUOTE ]
Let me put it this way, you will treat the poster's on this forum with the respect they deserve, or you will not be part of this forum in the future. I see you are new. Learn which way is...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 04:35 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the fact that the original poster used this formula without explaining how or why he derived it (and i suspect someone else derived it and he just saw the end product) doesn't...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 03:58 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your expression gives the right anwer (1.860-to-1) by a self-cancelling error.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's classic. also, the Odyssey was not written by Homer, but by...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 03:15 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

[ QUOTE ]
this thread is so much fun! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

sorry to hijack, but i've got this great way to figure out what 2*2 is. you multiply 2 by 3, substract 2, and you get 4!

[/...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 03:13 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

this thread is so much fun! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

sorry to hijack, but i've got this great way to figure out what 2*2 is. you multiply 2 by 3, substract 2, and you get 4!
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 03:06 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

[ QUOTE ]
Your expression gives the right anwer (1.860-to-1) by a self-cancelling error.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's classic. also, the Odyssey was not written by Homer, but by another author of the...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 02:53 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
((Outs/unseen cards on turn)+(Outs/unseen cards on river))
-((Outs/unseen cards on turn)* (Outs/unseen cards on river))
=% hand will be made

100-% hand will be made= x
...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 02:50 PM
Replies: 24
Views: 184
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Did I win this bet?

[ QUOTE ]
Hopefully the good folks at the 2+2 forums can help settle a bet between me and an acquaintance.

Here's the bet. An acquaintance bet me that I don't know how to calculate how flop outs...
Forum: Probability 01-07-2005, 01:35 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 86
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: party poker badbeat jackpot

[ QUOTE ]
what is the magic number that would make calling any possible straight flush hand preflop correct, not considering any other variables other than the possibilty of another bad beat hand...
Forum: Probability 01-06-2005, 09:15 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 86
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: party poker badbeat jackpot

[ QUOTE ]
can anyone give an analysis on how big the jackpot would have to be in order to justify playing ANY straight flush draw preflop (even a 3 gapper) in light of the odds of someone else...
Forum: Probability 01-05-2005, 03:16 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 96
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: AA cracked twice in one hand--how bad is this beat?

i just hacked my hand calculator code to allow me to figure out how often a hand comes in last place (instead of first). running A/images/graemlins/club.gifA/images/graemlins/spade.gif against...
Forum: Probability 01-04-2005, 03:36 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 86
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: The odds of both holecards being suited?

i was looking over my post and realized that the quotient could actually be simplified alot. in fact, gaming mouse will probably explain why jumping to the simplified version is the easy way ...
Forum: Probability 01-04-2005, 03:03 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 86
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: The odds of both holecards being suited?

typo.

that sum is the probability that nobody else has two clubs. to get the chance that at least one person does subtract that sum from 1.

[ QUOTE ]
i just composed a very nice post on how...
Forum: Probability 01-04-2005, 02:39 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 162
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: open message to gaming_mouse

This is exactly the sort of explanation that should be available on this site (or linked from this site). Like in a probability forum FAQ. or something. the same fundamental concepts get explained...
Forum: Probability 01-04-2005, 02:25 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 84
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Two pair

[ QUOTE ]
I keep losing to two pair on the river . Why? Why don't I catch 2 pair? What are the odds of my opponent hitting 2 pair by the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe if you figured out how to use...
Forum: Probability 01-04-2005, 02:19 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 86
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: The odds of both holecards being suited?

i just composed a very nice post on how to calculate this, including the usual disclaimer that gaming mouse would come along in a couple of hours and explain the easy way, and right as i was...
Forum: Probability 01-04-2005, 01:07 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 85
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: 4 Pocket Pair...

[ QUOTE ]
Saw this on party a couple of days ago. Just wondering the odds of this happening. The last 4 positions all had pocket pair, JJ, QQ, KK, AA. Two were low stacks and the kings and aces...
Forum: Probability 01-04-2005, 12:35 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 83
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
OT: Re: Expectation Question

[ QUOTE ]
The expectation is the same, but the variance is a lot different. The variance in the first lottery is about 1000 times that in the second. That's why the second lottery seems more...
Forum: Probability 01-01-2005, 06:22 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 160
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Can We Hit the Lotto Again?

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is actually pretty easy to represent in an equation.

Without the Utility Function (U), the EV equation is:

EV = -x + J*(x/p)

Where p = probability, J = jackpot value,...
Forum: Probability 01-01-2005, 03:53 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 166
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Key holdem odds to memorize

[ QUOTE ]
To do nCr calculations on a handheld you need a scientific calculator. However, you can do them in google too. Google is also nice because it can handle HUGE numbers, much bigger than...
Forum: Psychology 12-24-2004, 03:21 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 138
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Playing less during a down swing, smart or stupid?

i feel sorry for professional poker players. the rest of us can play when we feel like it and not play when we don't feel like it.

the only reasons i can think of not to take a break when you are...
Forum: Psychology 12-24-2004, 02:55 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 224
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Why does the MRS pay $28 to get the dog\'s haircut and go him a swe

small dogs with long hair get dirty, easily.

with a hair cut and a sweater, you can throw the sweater in the laundry.

with long hair and no sweater, you have to throw the whole dog in the...
Forum: Psychology 12-24-2004, 02:51 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 224
Posted By MortalWombatDotCom
Re: Why does the MRS pay $28 to get the dog\'s haircut and go him a swe

[ QUOTE ]
When I read your posts, I hear Christopher Walkin in my head.

[/ QUOTE ]

i do too, now. i like it. it's like licking the toad without the brain damage.
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