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Forum: Probability 11-10-2005, 10:35 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: Probability pair over bigger pair?

I wrote an excel spread sheet awhile ago that figures this. The probability that one or more of your nine opponents holds a higher pair when you hold xx is:

K 4.4%
Q 8.6%
J 12.6%
T...
Forum: Probability 10-25-2005, 05:05 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: Flush Draw v. Made Set on Flop/Hold Em

Hopefully someone else will check out my calculations but I think you can determine the break even pott odds as follows:

We first need to determine the five following probabilities:

A. Flush...
Forum: Probability 10-08-2005, 10:31 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: heads up question

There are 47 cards remaining after the flop. Your opponent could have any one of (47c2) cards or 1081 combinations.

There are two nines and 45 other cards. Either nine could hit with any of the...
Forum: Probability 10-07-2005, 10:44 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 8
Posted By Cobra
Re: Pocket tens post flop.

Sloppy work by me Bruce. Thanks for pointing out the mistakes.

Cobra
Forum: Probability 10-06-2005, 10:28 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 8
Posted By Cobra
Re: Pocket tens post flop.

Assuming you open raised to 4XBB and there are six people left to act I will determine the probability that one or more of those six people were dealt a problem hand for you. The probability that...
Forum: Probability 09-25-2005, 01:11 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: Searched...no luck...

Actually what I gave you would include the hands that have a pair of board cards as well. This would give you two pair. One in your hand and one on the board. I have to go right now but if you...
Forum: Probability 09-25-2005, 01:08 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: Searched...no luck...

The probability of getting a pair and only a pair is

=2*3*(44c2)/(50c3) = 28.96%

Assume you have AK there are three aces left and three kings. There are 44 other cards. Let say you want the...
Forum: Probability 09-18-2005, 10:09 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: The odds of trips.

The probability that someone at your table was dealt one or more sixes after the flop is relatively easy to determine. The usefulness of this information is suspect because you don't know wether...
Forum: Poker Theory 09-03-2005, 10:21 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 12
Posted By Cobra
Re: Is this considered a bad beat?

To put some numbers behind this when it came time for him to call your all in bet there was 137 in the pot and he needed to call 110. This is pot odds of 1.25 to 1. Therefore he needs a win rate of...
Forum: Probability 08-31-2005, 04:14 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: What are the odds...

I donīt have excel or a calculator in front of me but I can give you the formula you are looking for. You have to assume that your four opponents are playing four random hands. This obviously is...
Forum: Probability 08-25-2005, 01:31 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 14
Posted By Cobra
Re: calculating correct pot odds

[ QUOTE ]
~ 36% or c. 2.75:1 (this excludes any other outs you think are good, but in this case and A might be bad since it gives a straight draw life, so I exclued any A as an "out"). So if I'm...
Forum: Probability 08-03-2005, 06:09 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: odds of two players flopping the same trips, 6 players

When I read this I looked at it a little differently than LetYouDown. I am going to answer this question that at a six person table what are the odds that on the next deal you get a flop of XXY and...
Forum: Probability 07-15-2005, 03:01 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 11
Posted By Cobra
Re: Flopping Multiple Sets..

LetyouDown,

I believe you have a couple of errors.

(C(3,1) * C(3,1) * C(44,1))/C(48,3)

Should be C(2,1)*c(2,1)*44/c(48,3) = 1.02%

The probability of two people getting exactly two sets...
Forum: Probability 07-09-2005, 03:06 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: How would you calculate hitting a King or Ace Flop if you\'re have AK

A rule of thumb for hitting one or more of your cards on the flop is 5.5% times number of outs. Examples below:

AK hitting one or more: =6*5.5 = 33%
AX hitting an Ace: = 3*5.5 = 16.5%
KQ and...
Forum: Probability 07-05-2005, 04:11 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 11
Posted By Cobra
Re: Raising from the dealer position.

Boy that was easy wasn't it. Thanks, Cobra
Forum: Probability 07-05-2005, 03:28 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 11
Posted By Cobra
Re: Raising from the dealer position.

Yes LetYouDown, that is what I am asking. If you don't mind how did you come up with that answer. I am more interested in how the answer was derived than the answer itself.

Cobra
Forum: Probability 07-05-2005, 01:47 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 11
Posted By Cobra
Re: Raising from the dealer position.

When I say 40th percentile I mean 60 percent of the hands are worse than it and 40 percent are better.

Cobra
Forum: Probability 07-05-2005, 01:45 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 11
Posted By Cobra
Raising from the dealer position.

Did I figure this out correctly. Assume that three people are dealt two cards from three completely different decks. They can be dealt exactly the same hand. Now I will rank each two card hand all...
Forum: Probability 06-07-2005, 09:05 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: Odds of OESD

LetYouDown

Your answer is slightly off. By doing it the way you did you are double counting certain flops. These things are tricky.

For example if the flop comes 4-5-X you should originally...
Forum: Probability 06-03-2005, 11:03 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: Ace-Queen

There are 19600 unique flops if you hold AQ. (50c3).

Out of the 50 remaining cards you have 3 aces, 4 kings and 43 other cards. The probability of getting One or more kings and no ace is as...
Forum: Probability 05-24-2005, 11:30 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: Can someone explain me how to determine the % on a straight draw?

Here is another way at looking at the problem.

Case one you get a 4 or 8 on the turn, there is 8 outs and 47 cards. = 8/47 = 17.02%

Case two you get a 3 or 9 on the turn, there is 8 outs and...
Forum: Probability 05-19-2005, 09:23 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 15
Posted By Cobra
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

To answer your question, yes this is too simple of an approach. The problem is you are counting many of the hands twice. For example if you count flushes and then add straights to it you have...
Forum: Probability 05-15-2005, 02:30 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 15
Posted By Cobra
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

I do not know how you came up with that figure maybe you can explain and I will see if there is any errors. At the end of my original post I show the chance of having a specific hand or greater. At...
Forum: Probability 05-12-2005, 08:53 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 8
Posted By Cobra
Re: Odds on hitting 4 flush?

There is some confusion of what information you are looking for. Lets assume you have aces, the flop comes with two to a suit and you hold one of that suit. The following is the probability that if...
Forum: Probability 05-12-2005, 03:17 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By Cobra
Re: Odds of 3 sets being flopped and quads being hit on the turn?

In order to answer this type of question you need to make certain assumptions and start at a given point. I will find a slightly different number. I am going to solve the problem that given you...
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