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Forum: Sporting Events

12-06-2005, 07:44 PM

Replies: 39

Going for two each time Theory

Views: 314

Posted By MyTurn2Raise

Re: Going for two each time Theory

[ QUOTE ]
1. Points don't have linear utility. Increasing your point total by 8 is better than increasing it by 7, because you'll beat a TD+PAT rather than tying it. But increasing your point...

Forum: Sporting Events

12-06-2005, 03:29 AM

Replies: 39

Going for two each time Theory

Views: 314

Posted By MyTurn2Raise

Re: Going for two each time Theory

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming most people here read David Sklansky's article a few months back about going for it on 4th down. The basis of his whole article was that you can calculate your EP(expected...

Forum: Sporting Events

12-05-2005, 07:03 PM

Replies: 39

Going for two each time Theory

Views: 314

Posted By MyTurn2Raise

Re: Going for two each time Theory

Another point: two point plays are tough to design. A team usually only has a handful of what they view as successful two point plays. Using them all the time would help defenses prepare for and be...

Forum: Sporting Events

12-05-2005, 06:45 PM

Replies: 39

Going for two each time Theory

Views: 314

Posted By MyTurn2Raise

Re: Going for two each time Theory

awful, awful idea to go for two every time

These are not independent trials. The effect of going for two cannot be viewed in isolation. It directly changes the way the rest of the game is...

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