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Forum: Probability 07-22-2005, 04:37 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 85
Posted By probman
Re: What exactly is standard deviation?

[ QUOTE ]

For instance, since 68% of people's IQ score falls between 85-115, then 15 is determined as the standard deviation, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

Your statement is true only for...
Forum: Probability 06-30-2005, 02:27 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 339
Posted By probman
Re: Which Twin has the Tony?

I have to agree with icepoker. Form your posts in this thread, it is quite clear that you have fundamental flaws in your understanding of probability. What makes it worse is your biting attempts to...
Forum: Probability 06-14-2005, 01:26 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 87
Posted By probman
Re: A theoretical game

This game is called the Saint Petersburg Paradox. If you were to only look at EV, then you are left with an apparent paradox. One needs to look at the expected log of the value of a portfolio that...
Forum: Probability 06-08-2005, 01:53 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 84
Posted By probman
Re: simple EV calculation, but I don\'t know how to set it up?

Let p=prob(no king shows up in five cards). It is easy to see that

p = (48/52)(47/51)(46/50)(45/49)(44/48) = C(48,5)/C(52,5).

We then have

EV = pE[V|no kings] + (1-p)E[V|at least one...
Forum: Probability 05-19-2005, 12:03 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 226
Posted By probman
Simple solution

I didn't see the solution posted earlier until after I posted. Here it is anyway.


Here's a simple solution. I can achieve 75% success without using all four players, but simply three. Here...
Forum: Probability 05-18-2005, 11:42 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 83
Posted By probman
Re: Expected value problem

You're right. I over thought the problem.
Forum: Probability 05-18-2005, 11:13 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 83
Posted By probman
Re: Expected value problem

Your analysis is wrong. You assume that the event that the boxes are empty are iid events and therefore the expected number of empty boxes is simpley the probability that a given box is empty times...
Forum: Probability 05-18-2005, 04:37 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 119
Posted By probman
Re: Looking for some Math course suggestions

Why are you interested in only a statistics course and not a course in probability as well? They are definitely not the same and both have their uses when it comes to poker. However it is hard to...
Forum: Probability 03-17-2005, 06:04 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 134
Posted By probman
Re: a probability brainteaser from OOT

The 1% stipulation comes from assuming a finite population size, n, with n/2 men and n/2 women. If n is small then the non-replacement effect you mentioned is significant. However, as n grows large...
Forum: Probability 03-17-2005, 05:22 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 134
Posted By probman
Re: a probability brainteaser from OOT

After quickly reading through the thread it seems that most people converged to the correct answer of 1/3. The argument you provide it the standard one given for this rather famous problem.

There...
Forum: Probability 03-15-2005, 01:42 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 114
Posted By probman
Re: Coin Toss Challenge

[ QUOTE ]
As others have mentioned, there are various ways to do this, all of them requiring a random number of flips.

The shortest procedure is this one:

Flip a coin until heads comes up for...
Forum: Probability 03-14-2005, 03:23 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 114
Posted By probman
Re: Coin Toss Challenge

There is a nice answer to this type of question. Let's say you have a fair coin and want to design a game where player A wins with probability p and player B with probability 1-p. Here p can be any...
Forum: Probability 03-09-2005, 03:01 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 83
Posted By probman
Re: Running it twice

The EV does not change with indpendent identical runs, i.e. the EV of the normalized sum is the EV or the first hand. However, the variance drops of as 1/n. So the more hands you play the smaller...
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