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Forum: Probability 12-26-2005, 12:02 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 28
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Huh ?

[ QUOTE ]

Question: Am I correct that only maniac on amphetamines could maintain such a SD (80 BB/100hands) and that even this maniac would have to work amazingly hard to do so ?

[/ QUOTE ]...
Forum: Probability 12-24-2005, 11:53 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 14
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Clarification

Uh, this is a heads-up game. You don't specify SD, only winrate, SD then follows. SD~$10 for a wide range of winrates. In the specified case SD=$9.8.

1% BR=-ln(0.01)/2 * 9.8^2/1 = $221 = 20...
Forum: Probability 10-28-2005, 10:46 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 9
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Solving for standard deviation

[ QUOTE ]
If so, you can estimate all kinds of things regarding the risk per ROUND of betting.

[/ QUOTE ]
He doesn't want to calculate risk per ROUND of betting, he wants to calculate risk per...
Forum: Probability 10-20-2005, 09:49 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 17
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Results

Awesome /images/graemlins/grin.gif I thought 20% would pick 1 but I forgot this is an advantage gambling forum. davebl, well played.
Forum: Internet Gambling 10-19-2005, 09:32 PM
Replies: 53
Views: 6
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Lottery at the +EV Point

[ QUOTE ]
One thing to remember when discussing whether or not playing a game with a large progressive jackpot is +EV is that at some point in time money will have a diminishing marginal utility for...
Forum: Other Gambling Games 10-19-2005, 08:43 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 24
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???

[ QUOTE ]

Guys...who gives a rats ass if it's a -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is exactly wrong. Who gives a rats ass if it's +EV? When EV is dominated by a 8-digit jackpot, and your bankroll is not...
Forum: Other Gambling Games 10-14-2005, 02:18 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 13
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Hard 17 with dealer showing 10

[ QUOTE ]
Standing is for suckers

[/ QUOTE ]
Awesome screenshot /images/graemlins/grin.gif
Forum: One-table Tournaments 08-19-2005, 06:47 PM
Replies: 40
Views: 4
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Grand Slam!!!!!

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
4 10ths -"Prisoner's Welcome"

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think I have or ever will see that one in my poker career.

[/ QUOTE ]
Done that. I average 2-3% 10th place and have...
Forum: One-table Tournaments 08-17-2005, 08:32 PM
Replies: 60
Views: 3
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Apples vs. Oranges

[ QUOTE ]
Game A (Sample size 1175 events)

$/event $0.95
SD$/event $17.90
Bankroll required for .5% ROR = $1388
Multitable earn = $23.69/hr

Game B (Sample size = 930 events)
$/event =...
Forum: Probability 08-06-2005, 05:39 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 12
Posted By Izverg04
Random walk question

What average number of fair coin flips does it take to lose N bets?
Forum: Internet Gambling 07-26-2005, 10:53 AM
Replies: 211
Views: 212
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?

[ QUOTE ]

How about this for a real risk of ruin, not a hypothetical one where you might be able to get staked, etc: You have AsAc on a board of AhAd10d Your opponent holds Jd2h, and his cards...
Forum: Internet Gambling 07-26-2005, 10:39 AM
Replies: 211
Views: 212
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?

I just wanted to point out that when the answer to the OP's question depends on how big your bankroll is, the definition of bankroll used to come to that conclusion is not very meaningful. I like to...
Forum: Internet Gambling 07-26-2005, 10:06 AM
Replies: 211
Views: 212
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?

[ QUOTE ]

Another post commented: well, what happens when you win, do you do it again? It brings up an interesting point, because of course the expected value of taking this proposition to...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-24-2005, 06:56 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 14
Posted By Izverg04
Re: allowing your opponent to martingale you

You missed the point -- we were specifically talking about martingaling.
Forum: Poker Theory 07-24-2005, 04:17 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 14
Posted By Izverg04
Re: allowing your opponent to martingale you

Pzhon is 100% right.

When you have an advantage, it is better to be on the receiving end of a martingale, given that EV is the same whether you are martingaling or the other player is. Your...
Forum: One-table Tournaments 07-24-2005, 03:51 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 4
Posted By Izverg04
Re: how much would you pay to have a pro look at your summary?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with Citanul. My risk tolerance is 100%.

Ship it, holla.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

It might be because you like gambling. Personally I only like winning.
Forum: One-table Tournaments 07-23-2005, 06:19 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 4
Posted By Izverg04
Re: how much would you pay to have a pro look at your summary?

[ QUOTE ]
while i'm sure you can find someone to look over a game or two for free, this statement below is pretty silly. to a pro, they play their hours they make their money, the concept of taking...
Forum: Other Gambling Games 07-19-2005, 08:58 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 12
Posted By Izverg04
Re: The lottery, The odds, and You

Once again, this calculation is not too meaningful except for giving the upper bound on how much you'd pay for this ticket. To calculate how much you should pay for this ticket, you need to build...
Forum: One-table Tournaments 07-19-2005, 08:01 AM
Replies: 18
Views: 3
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Mathmetically speaking

[ QUOTE ]
Randomness has no memory. If you got dealt AA ten times in a row the chance that you'll get it an 11th time is the same as if you haven't been dealt AA in the last 1000 hands.
Actually,...
Forum: Other Gambling Games 07-13-2005, 07:12 AM
Replies: 18
Views: 12
Posted By Izverg04
Re: The lottery, The odds, and You

[ QUOTE ]
what do you mean by +CE? I have never heard this term before and am unsure of its exact meaning.

[/ QUOTE ]
A flat fee that you would take in exchange for the gamble -- basically the...
Forum: Other Gambling Games 07-12-2005, 10:00 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 12
Posted By Izverg04
Re: The lottery, The odds, and You

[ QUOTE ]

anyone have any other ideas on this topic?

[/ QUOTE ]
When you talk about lotteries, EV alone is an absurd measure. A lottery has to be +CE (certainty equivalent) to justify...
Forum: Probability 06-15-2005, 07:13 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 11
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Advanced Sticky Bonus Questions

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
RTTmax can be interpreted as the risk tolerance treshold for an infinite wage.

[/ QUOTE ]

This loses me. Why can it be interpreted this way? Just because it takes no...
Forum: Probability 06-15-2005, 03:23 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 11
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Advanced Sticky Bonus Questions

[ QUOTE ]
So what is RTTMax?

[/ QUOTE ]
Here is a very basic gambling question. You have two "wagers" that take you the same time to play through, and the first one provides more value with...
Forum: Probability 06-13-2005, 07:39 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 11
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Advanced Sticky Bonus Questions

Finally, there are a couple of things that are not quite right with my analysis of the sticky targets. I haven't posted these before, because in the end, my formula is just a recommendatation, and...
Forum: Probability 06-13-2005, 07:15 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 11
Posted By Izverg04
Re: Advanced Sticky Bonus Questions

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

now how do you incorporate the house edge into this argument? ... Would you first calculate the simple expected end amount of playing out the wagering requirement as
...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 208

 
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