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Forum: Probability 12-21-2005, 11:12 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 14
Posted By alThor
Re: bump

Close enough.

1. In principle, you shouldn't decide on an interval size first, and determine n later, on the fly. Instead, determine a (large) sample size first, then construct the interval. But...
Forum: Probability 12-21-2005, 11:06 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 16
Posted By alThor
Re: Math Degrees and Careers

It sounds like MathEcon and I have similar backgrounds, so not surprisingly I agree with almost everything he said. However, I would not call first year classes 'easy' at any top 15 program. They...
Forum: Probability 12-21-2005, 12:37 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 16
Posted By alThor
Re: Math Degrees and Careers

Looks like most have been covered; the thing about Economics and Comp Sci is that there is a huge disconnect between undergrad and grad. As undergrad majors, they are more broad in preparing people...
Forum: Probability 12-21-2005, 12:20 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 12
Posted By alThor
Re: This forum needs a sticky

A sticky for FAQ's would be a good idea. The simplest would be to provide links to previous threads that discuss:

combinations/permutations

inclusion-exclusion

various ROR threads

Monty...
Forum: Medium Stakes Hold'em 12-19-2005, 12:28 PM
Replies: 47
Views: 4
Posted By alThor
Re: KJs in the monkey house

[ QUOTE ]
I like your analogy, well done!

[/ QUOTE ]

But this doesn't make sense (at least to me). I understand all of Bernie's last few posts, but none of yours, after the Pstove post.
...
Forum: Medium Stakes Hold'em 12-07-2005, 12:45 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 21
Posted By alThor
Re: Is this spewage? I never know what to do here.

[ QUOTE ]
You can't "make a flush draw pay" when he's got 12 outs against your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

When your opponent is drawing to 12 outs after the flop, he is not the favorite. You do indeed...
Forum: Medium Stakes Hold'em 12-01-2005, 12:39 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 81
Posted By alThor
Re: J6s -- play along with me

I was also confused by the first comments about position, relative to the aggressives...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
First to act after the flop with a "stereotypically aggressive" BB and a...
Forum: Probability 11-22-2005, 01:00 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 11
Posted By alThor
Re: Quck counting question

[ QUOTE ]
P(x) = ( C(11,2) * (50 - 11) ) / C(50,3)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, look up the hypergeometric distribution for further info.

Your answer is equivalently ( C(11,2) * C(39,1) ) / C(50,3)
...
Forum: Probability 11-17-2005, 01:07 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 11
Posted By alThor
Re: Drinking games lead to question my probability, meh

Drunk posts always make more sense when you read them in reverse:

Assume P(lefty) = 10%.

Is P(all 4 people lefty) = one 1000th?

[ QUOTE ]

4 random people sitting at a table, Px=...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 11-17-2005, 02:25 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 3
Posted By alThor
Comments on your thoughts on Gabe\'s thoughts on Josh\'s post

[ QUOTE ]
Every argument that suggests that poker will just get harder and harder to beat can be used to suggest that the casino's edge in blackjack should get worse and worse as time goes on. The...
Forum: Probability 11-14-2005, 02:42 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 16
Posted By alThor
Re: Guess WHO game. Dominated by a little girl!

This is an interesting question. Binary search minimizes average search time, but in a 2-player game like this, one should be more concerned with median type statistics than EV type stats. It is...
Forum: Probability 11-10-2005, 01:39 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By alThor
Re: Anyone want $10 in their Pokerstars account? Help me w/ this quest

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just post it here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he thinks his prof reads this board.

Maybe he's right.

alThor
Forum: Probability 11-05-2005, 11:37 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 12
Posted By alThor
Re: The tennis serve problem

[ QUOTE ]
What do you mean by benefit/payoff? Lets just assume you get a dollar for every mph of your fastest of the three serves. You get 3 serves, regardless of whether previous serves are...
Forum: Probability 11-03-2005, 06:03 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 12
Posted By alThor
Re: The tennis serve problem

We need to know the benefit (payoff) of having a successful serve of X mph for any X, and also the payoff of having no successful serve.

After that, it's a simple backwards induction computation. ...
Forum: Probability 11-01-2005, 01:50 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By alThor
Re: Beating online Bacarrat?

[ QUOTE ]
I've read about that before, but the systems they are using are meant for LIVE play. My post was targeting the online environment where a computer could be used to count all cards with an...
Forum: Probability 10-28-2005, 07:14 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 9
Posted By alThor
Re: Solving for standard deviation

[ QUOTE ]
My problem is that I'm solving for the standard deviation of one HAND, but then trying to use that to find the standard deviation of a hundred WAGERS

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and that's what...
Forum: Probability 10-28-2005, 11:42 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 11
Posted By alThor
Re: Minimum variance portfolio...

[ QUOTE ]

I can figure out the total variance of the portfolio given % of each security. I'm hoping there is a general way to do this, as I've never been a calculus freak.


[/ QUOTE ]

Do...
Forum: Probability 10-28-2005, 11:35 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 9
Posted By alThor
Re: Solving for standard deviation

[ QUOTE ]
I've always used WoO's value of 1.16 s.d. on blackjack to find the standard deviation of 100 bets by doing 1.16*sqrt(bets). Does this 1.16 account for the covariance, or is it just an...
Forum: Probability 10-26-2005, 07:27 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 14
Posted By alThor
Re: Riddle -- Probability of Expectation

[ QUOTE ]
The chance of all 3 letters occurring in the same 36-character line is

0.756331278146836^3 = 0.432649477099284


[/ QUOTE ]

The occurrence of letters are not independent events. ...
Forum: Probability 10-26-2005, 11:51 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 9
Posted By alThor
Re: If I wanted to shuffle 8 decks of cards

[ QUOTE ]
And I decided to this shuffle by picking two random cards from the 8 decks ans swapping their position, how many iterations would I need to have a properly shuffled 8 decks of cards?

Is...
Forum: Probability 10-26-2005, 11:44 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 11
Posted By alThor
Re: Random points on a circle

[ QUOTE ]
For part b:
Okay, after thinking about it, common sense tells me that the correlation is -1, since they have a decreasing linear relationship... right? But how can I formalize this into a...
Forum: Probability 10-25-2005, 01:23 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 11
Posted By alThor
Re: Random points on a circle

Hints only:

You have (a) right.

There is an easier way to do (b). What does common sense tell you the answer is? (If you can't figure out the easier way, you could still use your method and...
Forum: Probability 10-24-2005, 11:34 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 9
Posted By alThor
Re: Blood testing for disease in groups

Did you try the question yourself first? If there is an exam in this class, you'll not benefit from just reading the answer on a forum. You have to learn the thought process that goes with it.

A...
Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy 10-23-2005, 05:55 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 8
Posted By alThor
Re: Another One Card Game Theory Problem

[ QUOTE ]
3. How large a card would we have to give B to give him an edge. (If there was no draw it would be .67. See why?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll go with (1+sqrt(2))/3 =~ .805 until someone claims...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 10-23-2005, 02:56 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 3
Posted By alThor
Re: No Confidence in the future

[ QUOTE ]
How do you get 11,000 views and no replies?

[/ QUOTE ]

Warning: script kiddies at play.
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