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Forum: Poker Theory 08-22-2005, 08:47 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 11
Posted By switters
Re: Sklansky: What\'s the odds on you helping me with the odds?

Dave - your math is flawless, as near as I can tell - but you are missing a key point...

You are right that "in a vacuum", my opponent will only have 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs with a...
Forum: Poker Theory 08-05-2005, 06:38 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 13
Posted By switters
Re: He could also have had A-6/hearts or A-4/hearts -

I think it's hard for hero to "bet out" here since he acts after the villain... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

and if you mean he should raise the villain, then I definitely disagree. he's only...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 07-07-2004, 04:49 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 3
Posted By switters
Re: AQ - too tight?

Ok, I have been suitably chastised. I am convinced that this was a pretty terrible fold, and I'm a little surprised to find myself agreeing that a call wouldn't have been as terrible as I thought.
...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 07-04-2004, 04:12 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 3
Posted By switters
AQ - too tight?

$20/$40 at the Horseshoe in Tunica, MS.

I've been playing for about an hour, and the only three hands I've had to show down happened to be AA, AA, and a 37o that I flopped trip 3's with in an...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-23-2003, 06:04 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 11
Posted By switters
Re: 2 card possibilites

there are a total of C[52,2] hands, which is equal to 52*51/2 = 1326 hands -- many of these hands are equivalent, however...

you might be dealt one of the 13 possible pairs. there are 6 ways to...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-23-2003, 11:56 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 3
Posted By switters
Re: 10-20 KK, weaktight, or intelligently cautious?

when a typical player limp-reraises from EP, don't you usually assume they're holding AA or KK? I would tend to assume that UTG holds AA for top set and is just as scared of the 4...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-16-2003, 01:21 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 3
Posted By switters
Re: Easy Best / Obvious Check - Or Somewhere In-Between??

there are also 6 ways each that your opponent could have KJ or KT, which also make boats here... I would say that the opponent's play could be consistent with either of these two hands as well...
Forum: Probability 05-12-2003, 01:39 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 12
Posted By switters
Re: Top Pair Flop

so, if the flop is xyz, where x > y >= z (x is the TOP card on the board), what are the chances, given n opponents with random cards, that at least one of them holds an x?

assuming that you don't...
Forum: Probability 05-12-2003, 11:22 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 16
Posted By switters
Re: flush probabilities all in

you will make a flush with suited cards when the board has 3, 4, or 5 of your suit. you can compute each of those possibilities and add:

C[11,3]C[39,2] / C[50,5] = 5.77059%
+ C[11,4]C[39,1]...
Forum: Poker Theory 05-12-2003, 10:28 AM
Replies: 54
Views: 16
Posted By switters
Re: me too - I\'d take it in a heartbeat

naively, they are going to call precisely when they have you beaten/dominated... so the question is, will you make enough by stealing the antes between hands where you are contested to make up for...
Forum: Probability 05-12-2003, 09:41 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 12
Posted By switters
Re: Top Pair Flop

I'm not quite sure what you're asking - are you trying to figure the probability of *someone* having top pair when n players see the flop? The problem with this sort of question is that it is much...
Forum: Probability 05-11-2003, 03:43 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 10
Posted By switters
Re: Odds question.

if you start with a pocket pair, then for both cards to play you must make quads in the rank you hold. this will happen C[48,3]/C[50,5] = 17296/2118760 = 0.816% of the time you start with a pocket...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-08-2003, 12:28 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 3
Posted By switters
Re: zwitters: do the numbres make sense?

It does make sense, you can break it down like this:

1.31% of the time, you flop a straight.

10.45% of the time, you flop open-ended, and you will complete 31.5% of those (10.45% * 31.5% =...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-07-2003, 12:52 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 3
Posted By switters
Re: An intersting question

okay -- i'll try not to botch the math this time...

first, you need to figure all of the ways you make a str8 with those two hands:

JT: 789, 89Q, 9QK, QKA
QJ: 89T, 9TK, TKA

for each of...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-06-2003, 06:40 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 3
Posted By switters
ERROR CORRECTION

turns out I was computing the choose function wrong... correcting the math from the previous post:

quads : 2 ways
boats : 10's full ((3 C 2) * 3 = 9) ways + J's full ((3 C 2) * 3 = 9) ways = 18...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-06-2003, 06:31 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 3
Posted By switters
sorry, pudley...

Pudley -- it turns out that you were right -- we DO need to multiply them by three...

the reason is: I was computing the choose function wrong...

I computed (11 choose 2) as 11 * 10, when it...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-06-2003, 06:24 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 3
Posted By switters
ERROR CORRECTION

oops. the math from the previous posts was off - in most cases by a factor of three. The process I used was sound, but I was miscomputing the choose function throughout.

apologies for the...
Forum: Probability 05-06-2003, 06:03 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 11
Posted By switters
Re: minor error correction

Thanks!

you're absolutely right -- I didn't have a calculator with choose[] handy, and I was accidentaly computing the permutation function ((50! / (50-3)!) = 50 * 49 * 48) rather than the choose...
Forum: Probability 05-06-2003, 04:24 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 11
Posted By switters
Re: figures

I think these numbers are too high. I posted a response to vkotlyar's similar post in the mid-high stakes section:
link to other post......
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-06-2003, 12:58 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 3
Posted By switters
Re: how can this be?

in addition to the str8's and flushes, there are many other hands you like to flop with 10/forums/images/icons/heart.gifJ/forums/images/icons/heart.gif

(using (x C y) to represent the choose...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-05-2003, 04:35 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 3
Posted By switters
Re: How do i figure this out?

no. in both cases we are simply counting how many hands fulfill the given criteria, regardless of order...

so, the number of possible two-/forums/images/icons/heart.gif combinations from the 11...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-05-2003, 01:59 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 3
Posted By switters
Re: How do i figure this out?

so, let's say you have T/forums/images/icons/heart.gif J/forums/images/icons/heart.gif :

# of remaining cards : 50
# of remaining /forums/images/icons/heart.gifs : 11

number of flops...
Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em 05-04-2003, 02:43 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 3
Posted By switters
Re: alright, you want a lousy post? just read this one.

Calling the turn is quite OK. You are getting 7.25-1 on your 6 outer and you KNOW you'll pick up 2 more BBs minimum on the river if you hit. All your outs should be clean as neither of these two...
Forum: Home Poker 05-01-2003, 06:12 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 9
Posted By switters
Re: Seizing on the raid aftermath, are we?

heh -- I was there during the APC raid -- pretty crazy stuff. two tables were in the middle of a hand when the police came in -- made for a tension-breaking laugh when the guy who had shown his set...
Forum: Mid-, High-Stakes Pot- and No-Limit Hold'em 04-29-2003, 04:03 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 8
Posted By switters
could I have escaped this hand?

Let me start off by saying that I am not a regular pot- or no-limit player -- it's hands like this that are going keep me out until I figure out what's going on...

pot limit game ($2/$5 blinds). ...
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