Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
12-23-2005, 10:21 AM
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Replies: 22
Views: 418
Was Jesus a real person?
In another thread, Riddick wrote: "And regarding the birth of Jesus, isn't it widely regarded among our intellectual superiors and other high ranking historian-types, both atheist and not, that Jesus...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
11-08-2005, 01:54 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 75
Re: Free Will.
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I haven't believed in free will for about 8 years now. I was going through some hard times and used to take long walks to get away from my situation. On one of these walks, I came up with...
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Forum: Probability
10-29-2005, 12:05 AM
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Replies: 77
Views: 347
Re: Can one overcome a -EV game?
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O.K. Jason, I agree with your summation of infinite sequences. Since you know more about these things than I do it is my belief that I do not need to use an infinite sequence to prove...
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Forum: Probability
10-28-2005, 11:09 AM
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Replies: 77
Views: 347
Re: Can one overcome a -EV game?
If X is the sequence of all wins and losses, then X is a random variable taking values in the space of all sequences of 0's and 1's. Obviously, X is not a discrete random variable, so the link you...
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Forum: Probability
10-28-2005, 11:03 AM
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Replies: 77
Views: 347
Re: Can one overcome a -EV game?
The number p is the probability of winning one game. I was proving that the probability of having an infinite streak of wins is 0. Having an infinite streak of wins is the same as saying there exists...
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Forum: Probability
10-27-2005, 09:28 AM
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Replies: 77
Views: 347
Re: Can one overcome a -EV game?
Cardinality and measure are two different ways of describing the "size" of set. The concept which is relevant in probability is measure, not cardinality.
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Forum: Probability
10-27-2005, 09:26 AM
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Replies: 77
Views: 347
Re: Can one overcome a -EV game?
Let p be the probability of winning the game and assume p<1. Let P_k be the probability that we win every game after the k-th game. If we can show that P_k=0 for all k, then the result is proven.
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
10-21-2005, 03:08 AM
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Replies: 87
Views: 296
Re: Classic Type Game Theory Problem
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What does it mean to "[deal a real number]"? I would assume it means choose one uniformly and at random. That, in my mind, means you have a probability measure and each real number is...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
10-21-2005, 02:02 AM
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Replies: 87
Views: 296
Re: Classic Type Game Theory Problem
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[ QUOTE ]
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Suppose m is a measure on [0,1] such that m([0,1]) = 1 and m({x}) = m({y}) for any x, y in [0,1]. That's what we mean by a uniform distribution.
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No...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
10-20-2005, 11:17 PM
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Replies: 87
Views: 296
Re: Classic Type Game Theory Problem
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Suppose m is a measure on [0,1] such that m([0,1]) = 1 and m({x}) = m({y}) for any x, y in [0,1]. That's what we mean by a uniform distribution.
[/ QUOTE ]
No it's not. That would...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
10-12-2005, 10:52 AM
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Replies: 15
Views: 86
Re: Superman vs. Jesus
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Just on the subject of Jor-el & Ka-el; the creators of Superman were both Jewish and it may be interest to note that biblical names that end in "el" such as Ezekiel, Michael,...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
10-11-2005, 12:57 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 86
Superman vs. Jesus
The story of Superman, as told in the Christopher Reeve film, bears some isolated but rather curious similarities to the story of Jesus.
Jesus:
God sends him to Earth. He is raised as a human by...
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Forum: Internet Gambling
09-16-2005, 09:18 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 456
Re: Absolute Hand Histories Slow?
Here's an update for anyone having the same problem. What I've started doing is this: when I sit down, I immediately request 200 hands. By the time the email comes, I've played 100 hands or so and I...
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Forum: Internet Gambling
09-16-2005, 08:43 AM
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Replies: 8
Views: 456
Re: Absolute Hand Histories Slow?
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Even if it takes 30 minutes it doesn't mean it is hard to keep track properly.
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For me, this is how it works: I play 3 tables and average 170 hands/hour. Suppose at 8:00, I...
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Forum: Internet Gambling
09-16-2005, 02:02 AM
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Replies: 8
Views: 456
Absolute Hand Histories Slow?
I took a two month break from playing and now I've returned to AP. But it's taking between 30 and 60 minutes for the HHs to reach my inbox. It used to just take a couple of minutes at most. Is anyone...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
09-11-2005, 09:33 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 42
Re: Waves and the speed of light
You could take this to an extreme and declare that they all take off simultaneously. But then you must deal with the fact that simultaneity is relative.
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Forum: Probability
08-11-2005, 04:16 AM
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Replies: 10
Views: 125
Re: Advanced Random Walk Question (bruce, pzhon)
I just wanted to point something out. When the walk and the functional are fairly simple (for example, the walk steps either +1 or -1 units and the functional you are considering is the maximum of...
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Forum: Probability
08-07-2005, 12:01 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 125
Re: Advanced Random Walk Question (bruce, pzhon)
That looks right to me. So it's about 89% to stay below 50 in the first 1000 steps. Note that staying below 50 puts no restrictions on the lower end. So it could drift down to -800, for example, and...
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Forum: Other Other Topics
08-07-2005, 11:50 AM
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Replies: 72
Views: 221
Re: Misheard Song Lyrics
Pearl Jam, Smile
Correct: "Three crooked hearts swirls all around."
Misheard: "Free cookies and s'mores all around."
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Forum: Probability
08-07-2005, 10:45 AM
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Replies: 10
Views: 125
Re: Advanced Random Walk Question (bruce, pzhon)
It sounds like you're asking about Donsker's Invariance Principle. See these notes:
http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/users/peres/bmall.pdf
There is an application that looks like what you might...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-03-2005, 10:00 PM
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Replies: 39
Views: 147
Re: Pzhon\'s Post about Math and Nerds
This makes it look like the Quote is from pzhon and what follows it is commentary from David Sklansky. But I just discovered that the Quote is from ACPlayer and what follows it is pzhon's response to...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-02-2005, 10:07 AM
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Replies: 29
Views: 126
Re: Theory From One of Sklansky\'s Books
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The math on the topic which I studied is from "Inroduction to Stochasitc Integration" by K.L. Chung and R.J. Williams, 2nd edition, pp255-262. R.J. Williams was my phd advisor at UCSD.
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-02-2005, 10:04 AM
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Replies: 29
Views: 126
Re: Theory From One of Sklansky\'s Books
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My admonishment to you was that the example you brought up was in error, not because Black Scholes is not wrong, but BECAUSE IT IS NOT A MATH PROBLEM.
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I don't know what...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-01-2005, 11:20 PM
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Replies: 81
Views: 272
Re: Are Astrology Devotees SubHuman?
Belief in astrology can be very damaging. If your only exposure to astrology is the horoscopes in the newspaper, then it may seem like it only makes vague, mostly positive predictions. But this is...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-01-2005, 10:20 PM
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Replies: 75
Views: 942
Re: Common Sense Black-Scholes
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Let a=C'(S). We might expect a<0. That is, if we increase the strike price, the value of the call will diminish. Then
C(S + dK) = C(S) + a*dK.
But P(K)=C(K)+K-S, so P'(K)=C'(K)+1,...
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