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Forum: Sports Betting 12-31-2005, 02:22 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 25
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Ravens vs Browns

[ QUOTE ]
I like to use the Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA ratings, I basically convert them to point spreads, factor in a home field advantage and adjust for injuries subjectively. It's worked...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-31-2005, 02:21 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 25
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Ravens vs Browns

Fez thinks the Browns will be +3.5 by game time. So if you like the Ravens - take them now. If you like the Browns, then wait.
Forum: Sports Betting 12-31-2005, 02:18 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 20
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: New to middling - how big of an edge is needed

In the NFL, that is actually a slightly profitable middle. It would be terrible for any number other than 3, though. I am PM'ing you a link that might help.
Forum: Sports Betting 12-29-2005, 05:30 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 14
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: middling CFB totals

I can't answer with 100% confidence, but the above example almost has to be a great middle. I don't have a CFB database, but according to my NFL DB, the equivalent price of O45.5 -110 at O49.5 is...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-29-2005, 01:12 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 17
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Mammoth SIA/Pinny scalp

Mansion exchange has got pretty much the same thing going hanging a 4.5 -104. It's a guaranteed win, but I think it is slightly more +EV than taking NE -7 +132 at Pinnacle.
Forum: Sports Betting 12-29-2005, 12:55 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 17
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Mammoth SIA/Pinny scalp

I really wish I had won my lost middle at SIA rather than Mansion. Could only do 512 rather than the full 1K.

Still, very nice find.

Pinny seems to be overvaluing the 7 for some reason.
...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-28-2005, 06:44 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 14
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Sports Handicapping Books

[ QUOTE ]
Wong's book is pretty much the Super System of handicapping.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC Wong's book doesn't really go into handicapping. It points out the basic trends (home dogs are good,...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-28-2005, 06:18 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 16
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Sports Betting 12-28-2005, 05:46 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 14
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: I was offered this CFB bet ND/USC

[ QUOTE ]
You get OSU and USC? WTF are you waiting for?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he gets ND, but I might be wrong. Certainly if he gets OSU/USC this is a no-brainer.
Forum: Sports Betting 12-28-2005, 05:40 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 14
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: I was offered this CFB bet ND/USC

the moneyline on Texas is much higher than the moneyline on ND. If you have any concerns, you could always place ML bets on Ohio State and Texas to guarantee a small amount of cash.
Forum: Sports Betting 12-28-2005, 04:46 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 16
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.

In the real world, a more typical...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-28-2005, 04:35 PM
Replies: 20
SIA
Views: 29
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: SIA

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
went to bet Boise State at Bowman's today. I go to the lines and it says +3 EV. Great. I log in and the number is red and it is just a 3 (-110). I log off and it is +3 EV...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-28-2005, 03:24 PM
Replies: 20
SIA
Views: 29
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: SIA

went to bet Boise State at Bowman's today. I go to the lines and it says +3 EV. Great. I log in and the number is red and it is just a 3 (-110). I log off and it is +3 EV again.

Crap.
Forum: Sports Betting 12-28-2005, 04:35 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 14
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: ML Opportunity

It's worth about $4 per every $256 wagered.
Forum: Sports Betting 12-28-2005, 04:00 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 14
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Middling Opportunity Help

I hope I am not going to get bashed for plugging my own web site - but as far as I know it is the only utility on the net to answer these questions. Anyway, you should find an answer on how to...
Forum: Sporting Events 12-26-2005, 10:52 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 30
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin

[ QUOTE ]
If they are playing for an injury to an important player, they just got it.

[/ QUOTE ]

who?
Forum: Sports Betting 12-26-2005, 10:06 PM
Replies: 20
SIA
Views: 29
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: SIA

[ QUOTE ]
i made one cashout with them so far and it was doing quickly via neteller. i wouldn't say the dog lines are as good as bowmans (no friday afternoon specials),

[/ QUOTE ]

I always...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-26-2005, 08:32 PM
Replies: 20
SIA
Views: 29
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: SIA

Lines are even better than Bowman's square side IMO. As CCx said, they seem slow to adjust (as well as shading the favorite side as much as Bowman's). I frequently find middles/scalps checking SIA...
Forum: Sporting Events 12-26-2005, 08:07 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 17
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Dumb NFL Draft Order Selection rules...

[ QUOTE ]
but that tiny percentage of an awesome team getting the first pick is lame.

[/ QUOTE ]

how does an awesome team miss the playoffs?
Forum: Sporting Events 12-26-2005, 04:18 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 26
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Chicago vs Green Bay

betting either team +/- 7 was a terrible bet. The Bears had a better line earlier in the week, and the Packers had a better line before game time. If you liked the Bears at -7, why not bet them in...
Forum: Sporting Events 12-25-2005, 06:45 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 26
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Chicago vs Green Bay

[ QUOTE ]
Bears were only favored by 7. Hopefully many of you got in on that one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I bet my whole bankroll, and sold my car and house to get down on that one. I can't...
Forum: Sporting Events 12-25-2005, 06:27 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 26
Posted By DougOzzzz
Forum: Other Other Topics 12-24-2005, 10:06 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 1
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: Duvel

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That red was good. I'm sleepy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet. I will buy a bottle soon. I just opened a 750 of Three Philosophers...yum

[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Sporting Events 12-24-2005, 07:41 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 20
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: 2 Choking Teams

http://www.afgrant.com/images/sbxxxviii/mvp_trophy.jpg
Forum: Sports Betting 12-23-2005, 01:58 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 23
Posted By DougOzzzz
Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't really make my point. My point was that SD winning by 8 at home when they were 5.5 favs, is not that big of a deal. The person I had responded to had pointed out that they won...
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