Forum: Probability
09-04-2005, 05:26 PM
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Replies: 3
Views: 93
Re: Follow-up question
You got an R^2 of .99 (or was it just R) on real baseball data using multiple regression? That tends to be a bit on the high side.
After thinking about what you are doing, are you plotting the...
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Forum: Probability
09-03-2005, 03:36 AM
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Replies: 3
Views: 86
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Forum: Probability
09-01-2005, 01:18 AM
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Replies: 14
Views: 175
Re: amarillo slim\'s favorite bet
*smiles*
Fair enough BruceZ, wasn't trying to rain on your parade. Just figured it might be interesting to consider that the actual chance might be higher and favor the bet even more.
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Forum: Probability
09-01-2005, 01:05 AM
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Replies: 14
Views: 175
Re: amarillo slim\'s favorite bet
Admittedly, I was just being picky, but when somebody takes into account leap year, they are trying for an exact calculation. The problem is that the exact calculation makes an assumption that is...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
09-01-2005, 12:51 AM
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Replies: 26
Views: 106
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Forum: Probability
08-31-2005, 10:51 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 175
Re: amarillo slim\'s favorite bet
I won't agree completely that this is the correct number. The calculation is fine, but the assumption of equally distributed birthdays is invalid (amusingly, this very topic was recently discussed in...
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Forum: Probability
08-27-2005, 03:45 AM
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Replies: 15
Views: 305
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-24-2005, 09:31 PM
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Replies: 64
Views: 250
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Forum: Probability
04-04-2005, 07:35 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 79
Re: 8 Folds to the SB
Depends on the players, but generally that the chances the SB has a better hand does improve in some way after 8 folds. Whether the improvement has any significance is something I am not prepared to...
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Forum: Probability
04-03-2005, 04:08 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 87
Re: The purity of probability?
It should say something about probability theory that generally everything is developed from the Kolmogorov Axioms (which say nothing about how you actually determine the value of P(A)). Even then,...
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Forum: Poker Theory
03-31-2005, 07:11 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 182
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Forum: Probability
03-31-2005, 02:42 PM
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Replies: 19
Views: 166
Re: Probability of 100BB Downswing
Looks like jason1990 proposes a pretty good line of attack from my perspective.
I haven't taken a time series course, or else I would try to contribute a bit more, but I would think a time series...
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Forum: Probability
03-30-2005, 03:13 PM
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Replies: 17
Views: 131
Re: Exchange Paradox
There is some of this topic in "Statistical Inference" (Casella & Berger 2002, p 203). That text lists some other good discussions of the issue.
I agree the problem is in the incorrect...
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Forum: Probability
03-29-2005, 03:30 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 80
Re: march madness probability?
There isn't going to be a nice, perfect answer to this.
Since you have to get 63 distinct events correct, you could in theory assign a probability of getting each one right, and then multiply them...
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Forum: Probability
03-25-2005, 07:49 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 126
Re: Why is 10,000 hands too small?
[ QUOTE ]
There is a fundamental equivalence between hypothesis testing and confidence intervals (DeGroot p. 482)
[/ QUOTE ]
Hehe. True, and you win. I personally find it easier to think...
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Forum: Probability
03-24-2005, 09:33 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 126
Re: Why is 10,000 hands too small?
Ya, I realised that driving home, and then crashed after class. I knew something was wrong but hadn't pinned it down.
That I suppose addresses much of the question. The estimated standard...
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Forum: Probability
03-24-2005, 02:35 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 126
Re: Why is 10,000 hands too small?
Thank you for comments Paul.
Alright, I suppose that raises some other things.
If 15-20BB is in fact a reasonable estimate of the Standard Deviation after 100 hands, then the SD per hand should...
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Forum: Probability
03-24-2005, 09:01 AM
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Replies: 14
Views: 126
Why is 10,000 hands too small?
I ask this mostly because I am curious and more experienced minds than me can address it.
I have at times read some discussions about how valid your BB/hr rate is for 10,000 hands. What I am...
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Forum: Probability
03-24-2005, 07:41 AM
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Replies: 2
Views: 75
Re: Beaten by Quads 3 times in 80 hands...
Need more information to make a reasonable calculation (how many players, type of game, etc).
Philosophically, however, the odds that somebody will get beaten by Quads 3 times in 80 hands is...
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Forum: Probability
03-22-2005, 12:34 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 90
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Forum: Poker Theory
03-19-2005, 01:57 AM
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Replies: 29
Views: 185
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Forum: Poker Theory
03-17-2005, 11:27 PM
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Replies: 29
Views: 185
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Forum: Probability
03-16-2005, 12:18 AM
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Replies: 7
Views: 87
Re: A very simple problem
[ QUOTE ]
This is another question that can be answered with super easy math (read: non-combinations)
It's 1 in 26 that you get a specific card in holdem. Multiply this by itself, and you've...
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Forum: Multi-table Tournaments
10-24-2004, 06:21 AM
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Replies: 3
Views: 40
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Forum: Beginners Questions
05-19-2004, 08:24 PM
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Replies: 14
Views: 123
Re: the merits of J 10 preflop
My advice is to both fold JTo but beware whenever the board is such that JT will produce the nuts (Q98) since so many people play it.
I think Jones was trying to talk about a single marginal hand...
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