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Forum: Probability

10-20-2005, 12:24 PM

Replies: 9

Classic Type Game Theory Problem

Posted By danq

Re: Classic Type Game Theory Problem

I'm pretty sure the equilibrium strategies work out as follows. (Let a and b be player A and B's first cards.)

If b < 1/2, there is no bluffing: player A draws if he's below 1/2, and player B...

Forum: Probability

09-07-2005, 02:30 PM

Replies: 11

probability to be beat here?

Views: 127

Posted By danq

Re: probability to be beat here?

[ QUOTE ]
not gonna argue the math, but is it logical that there is a 71% chance someone has 8 cards of 45 cards???? somethings gotta be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, 8 out of 45 cards are queens...

Forum: Probability

09-03-2005, 08:32 PM

Replies: 11

probability to be beat here?

Views: 127

Posted By danq

Re: probability to be beat here?

[ QUOTE ]
That cant be right. You say its 8 of 45 unseen that beats him. If so then there would be one less unseen card when we calculate the probability of our opponent getting an X card (which is...

Forum: Probability

09-01-2005, 02:26 PM

Replies: 11

probability to be beat here?

Views: 127

Posted By danq

Re: probability to be beat here?

Edited my first post - I can't count.

For the two-pair-or-set probability, rather than inclusion-exclusion, I just calculated cases. There are 15 out of 37 cards that pair the board. If nobody...

Forum: Probability

09-01-2005, 01:55 PM

Replies: 11

probability to be beat here?

Views: 127

Posted By danq

Re: probability to be beat here?

Any Q or any 7 beat you, so 8 of the 45 cards you can't see can't be in any of the three hands if you're good. The probability that nobody has a straight is therefore

37/45 * 36/44 * 35/43 *...

Forum: Probability

08-14-2005, 05:10 PM

Replies: 5

KK vs all in

Posted By danq

Re: KK vs all in

Per Pokerstove, here is the EV of KK versus a few hand ranges:

AA only .181
AA/KK .226
AA/KK/AKs .322
AA/KK/AKs/AKo .473
AA/KK/QQ .500...

Forum: Other Gambling Games

07-09-2005, 08:30 PM

Replies: 19

Is this prop bet +EV?

Views: 134

Posted By danq

Re: Is this prop bet +EV? -- \"results\"

I simulated 500,000 boards with all 52 cards still in the deck; red deuces is actually a 52.2 - 47.8 favorite against AsKs. My results:

22 wins -- 259,759
AK wins -- 237,737
tie -- 2,504...

Forum: Mid-, High-Stakes Pot- and No-Limit Hold'em

09-02-2004, 05:59 PM

Replies: 55

Laying down the nuts...?

Views: 298

Posted By danq

Re: Laying down the nuts...? EV calculations

Given the pot and bet size, here's your expected value from calling against certain hands:

-486 against KcQc (straight plus flush draw)
+220 against KcQx or KdQd (straight plus backdoor flush)...

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