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Search: Posts Made By: Megenoita
Forum: Probability 12-15-2005, 03:12 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 14
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Ugh.... simple math question

All outs are accounted for--it was a pokerstove of our equity on the flop.
Forum: Probability 12-13-2005, 04:25 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 16
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Need help with some flop probability calcs

Yes, you are right; it doesn't tell us how often we flop top pair. I can calculate how often we flop top pair OR BETTER, though.

Flops that will have at least a K or Q and NO ace:

6/50 x 45/49...
Forum: Probability 12-13-2005, 02:49 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 16
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Need help with some flop probability calcs

For anyone who might care, one way to find how often the flop will contain 1 pair for you if you have KQ, for instance, is this:

How many flops will NOT contain a K or Q:

44/50 x 43/49 x 42/48...
Forum: Probability 12-13-2005, 12:27 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 16
Posted By Megenoita
Forum: Probability 12-12-2005, 09:29 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 16
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Need help with some flop probability calcs

If you don't mind, P, then how do we do the problem of KQ flopping a pair? I know it's about 16% each or 32% total.

The way I was doing it was apparently wrong but I somehow came to the right...
Forum: Probability 12-12-2005, 03:45 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 16
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Need help with some flop probability calcs

Okay, so I did this calculation correctly except I divided by 117600 total flops. Why exactly do we divide by 6? It's b/c of the permutations (?), right? The number of ways the same flop can come...
Forum: Probability 12-12-2005, 03:39 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 16
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Need help with some flop probability calcs

Thanks...I'm going to work on this...
Forum: Probability 12-12-2005, 03:10 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 16
Posted By Megenoita
Need help with some flop probability calcs

Hi guys,

Trying to do some work here...

how do I calculate how often JT flops a straight? I have the answer; I'm wondering HOW.

Thanks,
M
Forum: Probability 12-12-2005, 03:35 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 18
Posted By Megenoita
Re: math books

Mike Petriv's Hold'em's odd(s) Book

Has all poker relevant math, and how to do the problems.

It's still a basic book IMO, but if you don't know, for instance, how to calculate a back/door OESD,...
Forum: Probability 12-12-2005, 03:27 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 17
Posted By Megenoita
Re: over the course of 100K hands

It's decently probable. Probably 20-25% probable depending on your win rate. If your win rate is below really good, like under 2 BB/100 truly, then it's probably 20-25% probable. Having many 100...
Forum: Probability 12-12-2005, 03:22 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 17
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Probabilty for 1 pair winning at showdown?

You don't need to force the connection of how many players see the flop compared to how often you win at SD with a pair. In a 20k hand sample, it could simply be that you're running badly. You...
Forum: Probability 12-12-2005, 03:12 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 14
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Ugh.... simple math question

If the draw is 2.17:1, then I have 31.5% equity on the flop (1/3.17). If I put in 3 out of 6 bets on the flop, and I get back 1.89 bets (.315 x 6), I lose 1.11 bets on the flop.

I think that...
Forum: Rake Back 11-23-2005, 03:05 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 6
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Legality of Promoting Gambling

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(i have also heard that any form of rakeback is illegal, as you are sharing in some of the casino's profits.)

[/ QUOTE ]
Sounds like a huge stretch. Am I sharing in GM's...
Forum: Rake Back 11-17-2005, 08:27 PM
Replies: 246
Views: 7
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Party VIP offers - November

If you get RB, does Party take this FROM RB? I was under the impression that I get that Party bonus plus my regular RB.

M
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-15-2005, 01:03 AM
Replies: 60
Views: 61
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Snakes on a Plane

[ QUOTE ]
oops. i have no idea how i arrived at my figures there. i dont use excel because i dont have a spreadsheet program but could get one. i also dont know how to do all these calculations in...
Forum: Probability 11-13-2005, 02:31 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 12
Posted By Megenoita
Re: hey you 2 who are viewing!

[ QUOTE ]
The trouble with these calculation is they assume SB and BB decide independently of each other and of prior betting.

Let's take the simplest situation that you care about, everyone...
Forum: Probability 11-13-2005, 04:30 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 12
Posted By Megenoita
Re: hey you 2 who are viewing!

I love you Jason_t.
Forum: Probability 11-13-2005, 04:14 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 12
Posted By Megenoita
hey you 2 who are viewing!

trying for 2 hours lol, like an idiot...

if i'm btn and sb plays 40% of hands and BB plays 40% of hands, what equation shows the % that at least one will play this hand?

Thanks!
M
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-13-2005, 12:30 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 5
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Quick SB/BB Question

[ QUOTE ]
Fold [ref;0p

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-13-2005, 12:27 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 5
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Quick SB/BB Question

[ QUOTE ]
but if you can run good and make money in them dont feel obliged to lower your sights to our numbers.

these numbers vary a lot based on stakes. at 10/20 you will lose a lot more than...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-12-2005, 11:25 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 5
Posted By Megenoita
Quick SB/BB Question

I'm wondering what the long term BB/100 should be in these positions.

Thanks,
M
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-12-2005, 03:29 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 5
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Looking for a coach.

Over how many hands is this 300 BB downswing?
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-10-2005, 10:16 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 5
Posted By Megenoita
Tell me this call down is correct

Villain is 31/12/2.36/312. He has c/r the turn 0/27 times.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-10-2005, 08:11 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 4
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Please teach me how to win at poker

It would depend on the opponent because I have to imagine it'd be best to bet this turn against almost every kind of vilain.
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-10-2005, 08:02 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 4
Posted By Megenoita
Re: Please teach me how to win at poker

I have some thoughts on this kind of hand at 5/10. I have struggled with these situations at this level, but finally I have concluded this: Jason Pohl says that the only climate in which...
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