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Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 12:19 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

we aren't talking about winning players here, just average, -9% roi players

do you think is it accurate to say that everybody has .1 equity to start the game? or is this inaccurate because...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 11:27 AM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

ok, so it sounds like you see a fundamental flaw in icm...it not only assumes equal skill level (ie all 10 players are -9% players), but equivalent play

so if
3 of the donks are lags that have a...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 11:19 AM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: This argument is silly, and the math sucks.

in another thread, curtains said that he'd seen math showing that 45 extra chips to start tourney would add 4+ roi points to your ev...i didn't believe him, so i did the math

this isn't a...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 11:10 AM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: This argument is silly, and the math sucks.

it's just an exercise to examine the effects of 45 more chips...if we can conclude the actual effect of those 45 chips, we can then use it in more practical applications

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 11:00 AM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: This argument is silly, and the math sucks.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

so, is ICM right/wrong that the average player would gain 4.4 roi points if they were given 5 chips from each player to start the game? (assuming everyone at table is...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 10:09 AM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: This argument is silly, and the math sucks.

yes, but don't build skill advantage into the equation anymore...

just go off icm, which is an average player...icm DOES discount additional chips more and more the larger your stack grows...
...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 10:01 AM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

yeah, that's why we later abandoned the whole skill advantage issue and just looked at icm only, so an average player...icm DOES discount the value of added chips as your stack gets bigger...

it...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 10:01 AM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 10:01 AM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-23-2005, 09:58 AM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: This argument is silly, and the math sucks.

i'm not a proponent of doing the double-up first hand thing...i was simply doing an exercise to see what this argument would say about doubling-up first hand

if u got to my post with results, it...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 09:55 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

btw, i disagree that the thread is stupid

even if we are all wrong in the thread, it is sparking good discussion and getting people to think about icm more critically, so it's a good thread...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 09:54 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

that's the key point i was thinking about on my drive home

the way 2+2ers play makes it so that 45 chips don't matter as much as to a looser player....if we are tight until bubble and then pushbot...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 08:29 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: A New way to look at it: HANDICAP ICM for Hero...

well we can do the numbers with a 1% player's handicap, 5%, 10%, etc and see if it trends downwards...

but from 4.4 to 4.36 isn't much considering it's 18% vs -9% roi players

not to mention,...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 08:28 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

because of what i said before...it's all about what you set the variables to

if u pick up that someone is bluffing from a tell, then you change the variables...a machine may not pick up on...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 08:05 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

A New way to look at it: HANDICAP ICM for Hero...

1070 vs 770 stacks = .1298 ev which is an18% roi player

so let's give him that to handicap the game...he's an 18% player and hte rest are all average donks

NOW give him 5 chips from everybody...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 07:17 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

u are always a slave to math in poker, sorry

if u know someone is bluffing, that just changes the variables in ur equation

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 06:52 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

so if u fully believe icm, then you agree that if all players are equal skill, then this 845 stack gained 4.4% in roi over just having 800?

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 06:27 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

well take away the skill advantage (make hero an average player) and it's still >4 added to your actual roi number

that's the math of what ICM is saying

the question is: do u think that in...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 06:19 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

ok, even skill

10 is expected income per tourney
-1/11=-9% roi

10.51 is expected income if u get 45 chips extra
-.49/11=4.4%

so your roi went up 4.6 actual points

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 06:07 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: Let\'s set criteria for open-pushing first hand...

ok, it's a small range:

45.6% (can push in sb if folded to you): ato+, 77+, kqo
50% (can push in button if folded to you): ajo+, 99+
51.8% (can push in button-1 if folded to you): ajs+,tt+

so...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 04:38 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: Let\'s set criteria for open-pushing first hand...

well, this would only give you a narrow range of hands...i don't have pokerstove on this comp, but what hands can be 50% against the range of top 15% of hands?

i suspect it's a small number of...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 04:36 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

well i think math shows it does

however, you could maybe make an argument that ICM is more inaccurate with 10 stacks than with 4 stacks and ICM is overly exaggerating the effect of 45 chips in an...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 04:35 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

well i don't think this 26.5% skill advantage stays static throughout the tournament, but i think that adding 45 chips only won't greatly affect that skill advantage

do you think that your...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 04:29 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Let\'s set criteria for open-pushing first hand...

let's try to get some criteria for when you should go for the doubling up first hand...

we know if everyone folds to your push, you gain in roi

if u just steal the blinds to be 825, then ICM...

Forum: One-table Tournaments

09-22-2005, 04:18 PM

Replies: 108

MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

Views: 359

Posted By Nicholasp27

Re: MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

why do you only get 51 cents?

that's what ICM says the AVERAGE player gains...you are 26.5% better than the average player, so you should get more than 51 cents...

what's the error in that...

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