Forum: Sports Betting
09-21-2005, 09:53 AM
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Replies: 8
Views: 91
Re: Wednesday baseball
I agree with you that that is a good line. I think it should be around 140. So 158 is a pretty good price.
Also, you seem to be the baseball bettor that everyone looks to for advice. What...
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-16-2005, 05:05 PM
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Replies: 177
Views: 654
MY Picks
400 Bills +2.5
300 Wash +6
200 Atlanta +1
100 SF +13.5
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-09-2005, 02:00 AM
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Replies: 1
Views: 82
After One Game
Well the pats won by ten. No surprise here. The raiders did look good in that first drive, but they were playnig the patriots. Oh and by the way, why aren't the patriots the favorite to win teh...
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-06-2005, 10:11 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 117
Re: Sports Statistics
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Yes, you're right. The idea that this is time invariant seems a bit rediculous. I have two quick questions from you. From the little I know about Bayesian stats, I believe that the...
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-04-2005, 02:00 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 117
Re: Sports Statistics
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Well, as I said, I'm just beginning to make the model. Here are my thoughts on the predictor/response variables.
1. Response variables for the 2 models are points scored and points...
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-04-2005, 01:45 PM
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Replies: 196
Views: 1,064
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-03-2005, 08:08 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 117
Re: Sports Statistics
I have been using your idea in step number two. What kinds of predictor veriables are you gonig to look at? rushing yards, passing yards? Stuff liek that? Or just actual points scored and given...
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-03-2005, 12:07 AM
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Replies: 0
Views: 83
Baseball Profit
What kind of profit do you expect to make in a month on betting baseball?
Also, how many game can you expect to bet in a month?
Gjm112
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-02-2005, 06:04 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 117
Re: Sports Statistics
Can you explain your statistical model? What is it? What are you using as response and predictor variables?
gjm112
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-02-2005, 02:12 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 92
Re: Statistical Modelling
I have heard of this thing being done. As an operations research masters student, i was interested in creating a similar model. I must say, using Baysean stats is a remarkably good idea. I have a few...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-31-2005, 11:25 AM
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Replies: 26
Views: 197
Re: -1.5 in baseball
I respect your experience, but in my short career of betting on baseball i find the opposite to be true. You might lose a few more bets, but the amount you get paid out at seems to pay for the extra...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 11:23 PM
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Replies: 26
Views: 197
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 11:17 PM
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Replies: 34
Views: 345
Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
Fair enough. That was the pats fan in me talking about how the raiders ore gonig to get killed. It is a bunch of crap. you are right. I'm not gonig to touch this game with any of my money, and...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 06:49 PM
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Replies: 34
Views: 345
Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
Why are you varying your bet size? I can give you a mathematical argument why all your bets shoul dbe the same size and as big as possible.
In response to my rhetoric, I am a big pats fan and I...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 06:41 PM
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Replies: 25
Views: 177
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 06:36 PM
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Replies: 34
Views: 345
Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
The pats are gonig to murder the raiders. Remember last year when the pats won the super bowl and the raiders were awful. Neither team has changed that much in the off season. I'd buy half a ...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 06:30 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 92
Re: Statistical Modelling
In most sports i think i have an edge, bu tfootball is hard to model using classic statistical methods because of the odd scoring system. Its hard to account for teh fact that 7 to 7.5 is a much...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 04:05 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 92
Re: Statistical Modelling
Alright well I am gongi to post my picks in a friendly duel with Sygamel through out the season and see whos system works better. I imagine they are fairly similar in the returns we can see.
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 04:03 PM
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Replies: 41
Views: 249
MasterShakes
I'm not questioning your abilities at all, I am jsut wondering what kind of experience you have that makes you think you should be the one to review his system? I reliaze that sounds kind of in your...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 03:52 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 92
Statistical Modelling
I wrote a thesis on modelling the NFL using bayesian linear regression with time varying parameters to accoutn for strength changes over the course of teh season. It has done very well in seasons...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 03:45 PM
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Replies: 27
Views: 178
Re: Various NFL Trends 1992-2004
I am a little bit wary of people varying there bet sizes on games. ANy game where you think you have a positive expecation over teh long haul you, you should bet as hard as you can. Otherwise only...
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Forum: Sports Betting
08-30-2005, 03:34 PM
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Replies: 34
Views: 345
Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
I saw GB +3 and i figured there must be something I don't know about that game. I also like Ariz +1.5.
How about the Jets to win straight up at +150. That seems to be a good value.
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-04-2004, 07:57 PM
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Replies: 54
Views: 287
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Forum: The Stock Market
10-23-2004, 02:38 PM
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Replies: 13
Views: 75
Short Term Investing
I've made a few grand playing cards and sports betting. Now I want to invest it in some sort of investment. What are good short term low risk investments?
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Forum: Sports Betting
09-27-2004, 09:37 AM
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Replies: 3
Views: 123
Re: MoneyLine
I have this system that I have been usuing to pick winners. Its based on paired comparison logistic regression. Its don'r fairly well for teh end of that season and the beginning of this one. I...
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