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Forum: Poker Theory 12-30-2005, 01:03 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 31
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Better starting hand: 9To or 6Ts?

Heads up, 9To wins 59% of the time, with 15% ties. However, the flush possibility (the difference in flushes is greater than the difference in straights) means 6Ts plays slightly better against...
Forum: Probability 12-30-2005, 12:39 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 50
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

The good poker calculators figure everything. Here is a quick approximation, similar to ohnonotthat and timex's accounts.

AK beats AJ with Axx on the board 85% of the time, ignoring flushes. So...
Forum: Poker Theory 12-30-2005, 12:20 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 57
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Question on Behavior in Tournament Play

I agree with pzhon (as usual).

I think more clearly with specific numbers. To keep it simple, assume you think you have an even chance heads up against the short stack, and another player has a...
Forum: Probability 12-29-2005, 07:49 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 85
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: AA vs KK Heads up

There are 6 ways to get AA out of 1,326 possible pocket cards. Given that has happened, there are 6 ways to get KK out of 1,125 pocket cards. There are two ways for it to happen (either one player or...
Forum: Probability 12-29-2005, 07:45 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 63
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: probability of getting flush with suited hand

ChicagoVince's method works pretty well, here is the exact way to do it. You have to figure the cases of getting exactly three, four and five suited cards separately.

Three suited cards:...
Forum: Probability 12-27-2005, 06:50 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 13
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Calculating odds of flopping a pair

Thanks for the kind words. Here they all are:

A or K/x/x 5,676

There are six cards that are A or K and 44 cards that are neither. 6*44*43/2 = 5,676. You have to divide by two because the last...
Forum: Probability 12-27-2005, 06:40 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 15
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: ODDs math question

You got an excellent reply to your specific question. I'll try to address your general one.

Expected values add. The expected number of matching cards to your pocket pair on the first flop card is...
Forum: Probability 12-27-2005, 06:26 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 14
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: KK vs. JJ? - I don\'t trust my math.

If by "ragged flop" you mean all cards lower than Jack with three different suits and no likely straights, KK will win 90% of the time against JJ. So KK will lose one hand in 10, not 12.
Forum: Probability 12-27-2005, 06:22 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 14
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Interesting situation, check my math

Your math is close. I assume there are ten players for 20 pocket cards, plus 4 on the board. Then there was a burn card before the flop and turn, plus another one before the second turn (the original...
Forum: Probability 12-27-2005, 06:08 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 16
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: odds of happening

It's hard to figure this because there are so many different ways of it happening, and it depends so crucially on how you and the table play.

For example, it makes a big difference if you hold two...
Forum: Poker Theory 12-27-2005, 05:36 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 14
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Having position: could it be mutually beneficial to swap places?

You're right. Everyone, loose or tight, wants loose players on his right and tight players on his left. When you shift, you get a tight player on your left, he gets a loose one on his right. The...
Forum: Poker Theory 12-27-2005, 03:16 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 20
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: The Tao of Poker by Larry W. Phillips (RULE 255)

This is absurd.

In a tournament, a pretty good player with a big stack might be favored over a short-stacked expert. But the expert still expects to win chips every hand from the pretty good...
Forum: Poker Theory 12-27-2005, 03:06 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 22
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Pot Odds? Changed for this particular game?

I'm not sure I grasped everything in the first two paragraphs, but the question is clear.

Your basic idea is correct. You compared the pot odds with your call included (130 to 10) to the outs...
Forum: Probability 12-22-2005, 06:46 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 13
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Calculating odds of flopping a pair

First, 50 choose 3 is 19,600, not 15,180 (that's 46 choose 3, which does not help for this problem). Second, 5,676/15,180 is 37%, not 30%.

As fiskebent said, you've computed the probability of...
Forum: Probability 12-22-2005, 06:38 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 16
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: OT: Blind Guess on a Test!

You are correct that there are dependencies, but this only helps you if you have some idea about the answers 1 and 2.

For example, if you think that 1 has a 60% chance of being true and 2 has a...
Forum: Probability 12-22-2005, 06:25 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 13
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Cold streak odds, is this possible???

Do you mean an 85% favorite against a random hand or an 85% favorite against the best hand the other player might hold?

Also, when did the pot get over one full buy-in? If it got high while you...
Forum: Poker Theory 12-22-2005, 06:18 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 17
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Being Committed

You should never make any poker decision based on how much you have put into the pot, that money is gone, it's not yours any more. Another common error in a tournament is to assume you're pot...
Forum: Poker Theory 12-22-2005, 05:46 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 15
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: table talk

Effective table talk is more about listening to other people than what you say. A guy who broadcasts opinions without looking anyone in the eye just gets tuned out. But if you pay attention, a slight...
Forum: Probability 12-21-2005, 11:53 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 18
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Five nut hands in a row out drawn

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be interested if you'd take another go at the problem with the following parameters:
1) Full table
2) Loose players
3) Five consecutive hands
4) Flop or turn the current nuts (AA...
Forum: Probability 12-21-2005, 11:37 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 15
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Help me With Pot Odds.

KJL is correct, but we can be a little more precise. Assuming the cards are from four different suits, there are 655,265 boards that win $1,100 for you, 1,050,561 that cost you $500 and 6,478 that...
Forum: Probability 12-21-2005, 11:27 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 14
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Rand Var, CI problem

I don't understand the problem.

If your program generates the stream, then you can compute the expected value unless the program is extremely complex.

If that's impossible, you can use...
Forum: Poker Theory 12-21-2005, 11:19 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 13
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Bad kicker...maybe not so bad

Aside from the advice you've had already, I would add that the importance of kickers declines for smaller cards. AJo has a 45% edge over ATo (it wins 69% versus 24%) while A3o has only a 6% edge over...
Forum: Poker Theory 12-21-2005, 11:13 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 15
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Variance & Std Dev

The main reason to look at standard deviation is to figure bankroll requirements. Another use it to know how long you should put up with a downswing before deciding that you have to change your game....
Forum: Poker Theory 12-19-2005, 03:21 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 13
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Theory of Deadweight Information Loss

Most poker theory takes a different approach. The information in B is not necessarily valuable. A good player will keep track of the information she has revealed, and act in the future to frustrate...
Forum: Probability 12-18-2005, 11:52 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 11
Posted By AaronBrown
Re: Winning long-term at blackjack with negative expectation...

I find it puzzling. The people I know who did well at blackjack were obsessive card player types with excellent memories and computation skills. Several won world or national championships at games...
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