Forum: Sports Betting
06-24-2005, 11:26 AM
|
|
Replies: 51
Views: 304
Re: What do the % mean
"Profitable baseball betting isn't about picking winners. It's about uncovering mispriced lines and letting all of those little edges accumulate over the course of a season."
Mr.Baseball,
There...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
05-13-2005, 12:41 AM
|
|
Replies: 20
Views: 168
Re: Sports Betting Stories
Here's one that just happened 30 seconds ago.
I have TB and the Over 9.
The score is currently 7-5 KC. The game gets called in the 7th do to rain. The total wager I have which already won...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
05-12-2005, 11:11 PM
|
|
Replies: 20
Views: 168
Re: Sports Betting Stories
A good fortune one would be last baseball season I believe it was Texas at home. The total was 9.5 and I had the under. Texas scores 9 in the 1st inning and that would be all of the scoring done in...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
05-12-2005, 07:39 PM
|
|
Replies: 20
Views: 168
Re: Sports Betting Stories
Another bad beat story.
This time I was back in college. It was an NHL game and I don't remember the 2 teams but I had a big dog getting a puck and a half. As the story goes my team is down a...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
05-12-2005, 02:23 PM
|
|
Replies: 20
Views: 168
Re: Sports Betting Stories
Well let's see I'm not sure if I'm a masocist (sp?) but I only seem to remember my horror stories.
1) Lost 11 consecutive games at one point last year.
2) Yesterday I lost just over 7 (4 wins...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
05-09-2005, 02:35 PM
|
|
Replies: 2
Views: 89
Re: How do u predict line movement?
I don't think there is any fool-proof way to predict line movement.
However in the NFL, pointspreads that are at 2.5 or 3.5 go to 3 about 90% of the time. Also, spreads that are 6.5 or 7.5 tend...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
05-03-2005, 02:24 PM
|
|
Replies: 3
Views: 74
Re: How can this guy be favored?
MrBaseball,
Although I look at different things we both come to the same conclusion. I think Colorado has a little over 51% chance to win this game making +138 a good price.
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-30-2005, 06:15 PM
|
|
Replies: 1
Views: 83
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-27-2005, 05:34 PM
|
|
Replies: 5
Views: 87
Re: Regressing to the mean
Heinz,
I'm not 100% sure but I'm guessing the gist of your question is how much weight to apply to recent data in order to accurately project future outcomes?
There are probably endless...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-26-2005, 12:26 AM
|
|
Replies: 15
Views: 145
Re: Baseball Totals
Doug,
I'm glad that you post topics like this as I prefer reading topics on methodology rather than the run of the mill stuff you get on most message boards (Play this, fade this, etc.).
As far...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-25-2005, 08:48 PM
|
|
Replies: 15
Views: 145
Re: Baseball Totals
Doug,
I think you misunderstood me. I didn't say YOU were lazy, I was talking about people who just pick up the paper and read batting averages and era's and then bet on a game.
I probably...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-25-2005, 07:10 PM
|
|
Replies: 15
Views: 145
Re: Baseball Totals
Tech is right,
Averages are the lazy man's way of handicapping sports and they are totally misleading.
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-25-2005, 07:09 PM
|
|
Replies: 4
Views: 96
Re: 4/25 20*
I don't know what good banning him is going to be unless you can ban IP's. He spams the board at wagerline EVERY day. When they ban him he comes back with a new screenname.
Funny thing is he is...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-19-2005, 02:04 PM
|
|
Replies: 17
Views: 135
Re: Looking for a simple MLB totals formula?
"How does one know how heavily to weight each one of the many factors that go into totals (teams, pitchers, ball park, umpires, streaks, etc)? It seems that there are so many things that go into a...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-19-2005, 09:16 AM
|
|
Replies: 17
Views: 135
Re:
Reed,
It will never solely put us on a play or off of a play. We try to figure out what role the park plays. If Cy Young was throwing during the day there the line might be more heavily skewed...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-18-2005, 04:00 PM
|
|
Replies: 17
Views: 135
Re: Tech alway comes through with info
Radical,
A perfect example of what I'm talking about is the new ballpark in Philadelphia. I constantly hear "Hitters park", "balls fly out", etc from the announcers, baseball tonight, you name...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-18-2005, 03:39 PM
|
|
Replies: 35
Views: 230
Re: No... I really don\'t think so...
Wacky,
The average player doesn't have to be lower than 50%, just lower than the break-even of 52.4% and it's not hard to be below that over the long-run. The sports book wants to grind YOU out...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-18-2005, 02:24 PM
|
|
Replies: 17
Views: 135
Re: SOS - sharps are you still out there?
"Also, games in which road teams win tend to have higher totals than games in which home teams win."
Great point Tech!!
I don't know why this isn't discussed more often. For example if a game...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-18-2005, 01:13 PM
|
|
Replies: 17
Views: 135
Re: SOS - sharps are you still out there?
It depends on what you mean by betting "theories". I may be in the minority but I don't buy into the systems of "wind blowing out in wrigley" play the over, etc. kind of theories.
If there are...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-18-2005, 12:42 PM
|
|
Replies: 35
Views: 230
Re: No... I really don\'t think so...
Whiz,
First off, you are right in that 1000 games is not long-term and most handicappers will consider themselves long-term winners before even reaching that plateau. If you play a small number of...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-17-2005, 08:44 PM
|
|
Replies: 35
Views: 230
Re: No... I really don\'t think so...
If sportsbooks knew "everything" people would never be limited. When they limit sharp players they are basically telling them "we know you can beat us",so yes you can win at sportsbetting but its...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-16-2005, 01:13 AM
|
|
Replies: 26
Views: 308
Re: MLB 4/15
Come on now, 0-5 is not the end of the world. If you bet long enough you will have far worse streaks than that.
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-15-2005, 03:56 PM
|
|
Replies: 4
Views: 82
Re: Data for Back Testing
Heinz,
Well you are motivated and that's half the battle. You sound just like me when I got into this.
Now for the bad news, I'm not sure if there are any sources of data that you can...
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-14-2005, 04:45 PM
|
|
Replies: 37
Views: 249
|
|
Forum: Sports Betting
04-14-2005, 10:31 AM
|
|
Replies: 37
Views: 249
Re: Double Up Method - Could it work?
Krackerjack,
While I do agree on the Martingale topic, I do disagree about your logic with the 3rd game in a 4 game series.
Even if there were 7 straight wins does that mean it's going to...
|
