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Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-30-2005, 05:22 AM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in

I would think your showdown winning % is higher for the 20k hands?
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-30-2005, 04:20 AM
Replies: 38
Views: 125
Posted By solidswede
Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?

Raise flop, pocket pairs get ~correct odds to call one bet but not 2. Make them pay for 2 outers.
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-30-2005, 04:11 AM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in

That has to be at 1-2 or 2-4. I would be really surprised if it was at a higher game. Thanks for input.
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-29-2005, 11:52 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 278
Posted By solidswede
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-29-2005, 10:43 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 60
Posted By solidswede
Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown

Well said. We are finally getting somewhere. I'm trying to find out what the norm is and it has to be a more narrow range than 50-57%. Your expected range of 52-55 indicates to me that you go to...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-29-2005, 10:22 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside

You are right it is not the only thing we should look at, but I think it can be an explanation of running bad/good.
With your stats I would guess the majority of your hands are at 2-4 or below.
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-29-2005, 07:05 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 60
Posted By solidswede
Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown

absolutely, but I believe W%SD is the stat that has the biggest variance. I.e vpip, pfr, af, and WTSD% is not going to have a 6% point spread over a few thosand hands, but
W%SD may. That is why I...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-29-2005, 04:39 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 60
Posted By solidswede
Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown

At some point you have to say that luck is not what's causing you not to win, rather it is something wrong with your play. And I think this stat is a good "red flag" to use. I.e if you after 10k...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-29-2005, 03:58 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 60
Posted By solidswede
Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown

I agree 100% with what you are saying. But if I divide the 45k hands played in 5k hand blocks, the biggest variable of all stats is W%SD and I'm courious to see what others have.
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-29-2005, 01:04 AM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in

No there are leaks to your game based on the 34k hands, with the won $ wsf at 37.44 and winning % at showdown at 56.06%. Based on that I think you should have won more.
good luck.
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-29-2005, 12:51 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 60
Posted By solidswede
Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown

He is right, it all goes into your winrate. But the pots that goes to showdown are the big ones, usually about 8bb or more. I'm trying to find a point where you go from saying I'm running bad to...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-29-2005, 12:17 AM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside

I can't predict win rate. But I believe it will tell us if we are running good or bad. I.e. if your winning % at showdown is 60% and you are losing there would be significant leaks in your game. So...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-28-2005, 11:16 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 60
Posted By solidswede
Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown

Fair enough, I should have stated specifics in op
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-28-2005, 11:13 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside

I don't play 1/2 and 2/4 so I don't want to comment there. I have played 35k hands of 3-6 and I'm winning 1.06 BB/100 at a showdown % of 55.8. I would say that with a showdown winning % of 54 you are...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-28-2005, 10:49 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-28-2005, 10:36 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 60
Posted By solidswede
Re: 5-10 , winning % at showdown

The conclussion is from the 45k hands I have played. I want nothing general, I understand the math and logic. Give me specifics from your play please
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-28-2005, 10:33 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside

I agree that over 57% you are probably not going to showdown enough, but op is going there ~32% of time. So here I think there could be a scenario of just running bad.

I believe he should be...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-28-2005, 10:24 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside

Do me one favor go back and separate a block of 5k hands where you won less than 53% of your showdowns and still was beating the the game, then we will talk more.
Op is beating the game when he wins...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-28-2005, 09:54 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 60
Posted By solidswede
5-10 , winning % at showdown

Interested to see what kind of % people have with
winning %$at SD. Mostly from people playing 5-10 to 15-30, since the lower levels will have more players in and you can beat the game at a lower %....
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-28-2005, 09:37 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 327
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside

I don't know of anybody that can beat the game if they only win 51.47% of showdowns. Everything else looks fine to me
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 11-01-2005, 10:54 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 30
Posted By solidswede
Re: Should finding 30% VPIP tables at 3/6 be difficult at 9 PM?

3 over 25 will make a decent game, don't worry about overall. Remeber though that you get an idea of players VPIP after 50 hands, but don't no for sure until about 750 hands.
Good Luck
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 10-30-2005, 04:09 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 48
Posted By solidswede
Re: 100 BB shot at 5/10

Just make sure you play one game. I would not change my game any i.e don't play any tighter, play the same way that made you succed at 3-6. If you depend on "poker money" to live on I wouldn't take a...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 10-29-2005, 08:19 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 25
Posted By solidswede
Re: AJ 3 bet or call down

Do I really want to put in 1.5bb more and fold, when I can get to a showdown for 2bb?
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 10-29-2005, 07:55 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 25
Posted By solidswede
AJ 3 bet or call down

euro 5-10, hero utg+2 raises, folded to mp+3 who 3bets. HU to flop. Flop Jd 8s 3c, hero bets, mp+3 raises.
Should hero 3bet or call?
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 10-29-2005, 04:51 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 20
Posted By solidswede
Going to showdown % and Won $ at showdown

My going to showdown # are about 31% and Won$ at SD is 53.5% over 28k hands for a 10handed game. Low or high?
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