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Forum: Televised Poker 09-06-2005, 10:39 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 16
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Time to Give Poker Superstars 2 Another Chance?

There were 2 horrendous plays in this match.

Runner-up: T. Brunson calls Dewey's allin when Dewey will have less than 100K (out of >3M) if Todd wins and Todd will be out if he loses. And rooting...
Forum: One-table Tournaments 10-31-2004, 11:23 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 3
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Rhythm in the madness II: the $55\'s

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I remember that post. In fact, it was one of the posts that inspired me to keep better stats.

I am always very curious about what happens to posters who seem to know what they are...
Forum: One-table Tournaments 10-31-2004, 11:13 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 3
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Where are??????

Yes, I have been (and will continue to be) gone. Job situation has massively changed for me, so I have much less free time.

Hope you are all doing well,
Craig
Forum: One-table Tournaments 07-19-2004, 01:47 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 3
Posted By Bozeman
Re: The old coin-flip debate (long including quotes)

I am not regularly reading the forum now, but PM sent me a pm about this thread, so I think I should try to respond.

General points about near bubble play:

1) -CEV is essentially always -$EV.
...
Forum: Poker Theory 07-02-2004, 12:42 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 13
Posted By Bozeman
Re: River problem (NOT holdem!)

I can't see this as a profitable hand to play this far.
Forum: Probability 07-01-2004, 01:55 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 11
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Another Question:pre-flop

Not that I can imagine occurring in my lifetime.

Only cases: (almost) everyone calls allin with >~5 people left and 2nd and 3rd pay a reasonably large fraction of 1st.
or Someone is guaranteed...
Forum: Probability 07-01-2004, 01:52 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 11
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Another Question:pre-flop

Not that I can imagine occurring in my lifetime.

Only case: (almost) everyone calls allin with >~5 people left and 2nd and 3rd pay a reasonably large fraction of 1st.

Craig
Forum: Probability 07-01-2004, 01:48 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 11
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Odds of for playing \"double runner runner\" situations

A reasonable rule of thumb is that runner runner draws are worth somewhere between 1 and 2 outs each. Whether closer to 1 or 2 depends on what sort of action is likely on the turn (and river). Also...
Forum: Probability 07-01-2004, 01:31 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 11
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Another Question:pre-flop

There are often cases in tournament play where it is correct to fold AK or AQ, even if your opponents can have many worse hands. For example, if they need any ace or pair to go/call allin, you are...
Forum: One-table Tournaments 06-29-2004, 03:57 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 15
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Another SNG Theory Question

If the stars players were as weak as the party players, I think I could do better with that structure $/hr wise.

My guess for #6 is 100% ROI.

Craig
Forum: Probability 06-24-2004, 12:49 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 10
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Boat Odds When flop Trips

I think we should try to propogate the commonly used more precise terminology that flopping 3 of a kind with a pp is a set, while 3 of a kind with an unpaired hand (two of x on flop), is trips.
Forum: Probability 06-24-2004, 12:43 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 9
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Dream Jackpot

There is probably some point at which this ceases to be true (that AA wants more callers), though it may be when there are more than 10 callers. Against random hands (allin preflop), you would...
Forum: Probability 06-18-2004, 12:13 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 11
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Standard Deviation

You should only expect to make a pair (or two pair, trips, or quads) with an unpaired hand on the flop 32.43% of the time, so you are actually getting luckier than average here.
In addition, if you...
Forum: One-table Tournaments 06-18-2004, 12:07 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 29
Posted By Bozeman
Forum: Multi-table Tournaments 06-17-2004, 11:11 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 7
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Deal Calculator

I'm glad someone was able to get it and run it.

The Prize$ column is the payout schedule (i.e. 1st=$500, 2nd=$300, 3rd=200).

EV is expected value of that player's stack given the distribution...
Forum: One-table Tournaments 06-17-2004, 10:52 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 29
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Most Common Finish

Like this:
http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/data/finishplace.GIF

At every level that I have lots of data, it is a smoothly decreasing function, but it takes longer than this (~500 data...
Forum: Multi-table Tournaments 06-17-2004, 08:02 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 7
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Deal Calculator

Several months ago I posted links to C source code for several of these, they are at
FourWay and IC source (http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/FourWay/Source/)

The code is ~= atrocious,...
Forum: One-table Tournaments 06-17-2004, 07:55 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 44
Posted By Bozeman
Re: 200+15 SNG players-how good is this guy?

FWIW (not much), Frozen_Fish is down $810 in 14 $215 SnG's I have played against him.
Forum: One-table Tournaments 06-17-2004, 07:30 PM
Replies: 0
Views: 3
Posted By Bozeman
DealCalculator (or use to estimate EV or finish probability)

I made a Palm application to calculate reasonable deal splits:

DealCalculator (http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/DealCalc/)

Any questions or comments welcome,
Craig

PS: Note:
Not...
Forum: Multi-table Tournaments 06-17-2004, 07:28 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 7
Posted By Bozeman
Deal Calculator

I made a Palm application to calculate reasonable deal splits:

DealCalculator (http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/DealCalc/)

Any questions or comments welcome,
Craig

PS: Note:
Not...
Forum: Poker Theory 06-14-2004, 01:05 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 13
Posted By Bozeman
Re: AK AQ Theory-question (preflop)

AQs: fold unless lots of other players have called (not possible in your scenario).

AK: His hand is going to be better than yours, so your advantage comes from knowing his hand well. I think AK...
Forum: Poker Theory 06-13-2004, 01:29 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 13
Posted By Bozeman
Re: [0,1] game and tournament play?

The tournament nature only comes in if you try to maximize ROI instead of $/hand or you have more players.
Forum: Poker Theory 06-10-2004, 07:40 PM
Replies: 84
Views: 16
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Thoughts on #4

Sorry, it looks like I was not careful enough in saying that there was agreement. I looked at most of the points in well's result, found them to agree, and then just scanned the rest to make sure no...
Forum: Poker Theory 06-09-2004, 11:16 PM
Replies: 84
Views: 16
Posted By Bozeman
Re: Thoughts on #4

"The value-raise and bluff-raise criteria for B must be the same as in #3 because A has no additional options when B raises. So, I don't see how there can be any difference there."

This is false:...
Forum: Poker Theory 06-09-2004, 04:48 PM
Replies: 84
Views: 16
Posted By Bozeman
Re: My solution to #4, the [0,1]-game with live blind.

Already been checked.

Jerrod and I got the same strategies, and you and I got the same value, Jerrod apparently making an arithmetic mistake.

Craig
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