Forum: Probability
12-23-2005, 08:03 PM
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Replies: 19
Views: 190
Re: Clarification
I am not sure what units his SD is in: $ or buy-ins. But for a
1% risk of ruin you need to have a bank of about 2.5 times variance/EV.
Bill C
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Forum: Probability
12-23-2005, 02:25 PM
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Replies: 19
Views: 190
Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
bankroll=-ln(r)v/(2E) where v=variance, E=expectation, and r=risk of ruin.
You bankroll is your total wealth (including future earnings) minus expenses, not your "gambling bank", or "what you can...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
12-23-2005, 12:17 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 571
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
12-23-2005, 12:11 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 571
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Forum: Probability
12-22-2005, 10:31 PM
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Replies: 19
Views: 190
Re: Heads Up SNG standard D
You need about 183 buy-ins if you win .6 buy-ins per tournament. Your risk tolerance pegs you at about .4 Kelly.
The formulas are old and were discovered by the blackjack theory people in the 90's....
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Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em
12-18-2005, 09:43 PM
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Replies: 75
Views: 608
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Forum: Probability
12-18-2005, 01:55 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 94
Re: Calculating risk of ruin (sportsbetting)
The normal approximation is inaccurate because you might go broke before finishing the n bets. This is the classic "falling off the edge" error.
You can consult the BruceZ thread or my paper...
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Forum: Probability
11-27-2005, 09:06 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 90
Re: Normality of winrates
I would be surprised if per hour win rates were far from being normal. I might even suspect that you are using the software incorrectly, or making some other error.
Bruce, why do you think...
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Forum: Probability
11-24-2005, 12:30 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 96
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-24-2005, 12:16 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 93
Re: Bankroll (requirements for No Limit)
You might start with my July magazine article, where you will see that bankroll is variance/EV times some multiplier, say k=3 or 4. So you need to estimate what variance and EV are (say for 100...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
11-10-2005, 06:03 PM
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Replies: 20
Views: 92
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Forum: Probability
10-05-2005, 10:41 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 95
Re: Fluctuation probablities?
It might be a bit hasty to be using normal probabilites here. I mean in some B&M games you only get 30 hands/hr and maybe only play a few hands. Of course whether or not the results from an hour of...
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Forum: Probability
10-01-2005, 04:26 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 83
Re: BR & multi-tabling
Multitabling just speeds ups time, assuming your EV doesn't degrade. Bankroll and risk are discussed in my July magazine article...
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
09-29-2005, 10:55 PM
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Replies: 39
Views: 147
Re: Barron\'s Article.
Barron,
I only wanted to point out that you can quantify how to factor in variance and bankroll. Otherwise what good does it do to say that just EV is not sufficient for decison-making? You have...
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
09-28-2005, 09:56 PM
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Replies: 39
Views: 147
Re: Barron\'s Article.
[ QUOTE ]
*I know someone is jumping out thinking that "within our means" shouldn't be an issue with making EV plays, but this is assuming an unlimited bankroll, and, I don't know about you, but...
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
09-17-2005, 03:34 PM
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Replies: 29
Views: 114
Re: Excellent Advice. Just One Thing . . .
I agree that playing poker full time is a young man's game (or for retirees). I have the freedom to play a lot of poker b/c of my flexible academic hours. But I don't. It is too tedious and...
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
09-15-2005, 12:57 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 58
Re: CV
Maintaining a constant risk of ruin is equivalent to fractional Kelly betting as explained in our bjmath.com article. We call it "instantaneous" risk of ruin. It gives the ror if you suddenly...
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
09-13-2005, 01:38 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 58
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
09-13-2005, 01:37 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 58
Re: CV
When betting Kelly or fraction thereof, you decrease or increase your bets according to your bankroll. The CV is proportional to the rate of growth of your expected bankroll. That is why it is a...
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Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine
09-11-2005, 05:38 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 58
Re: CV
CV has been used for a long time in blackjack world, and is sometimes known as the "desirablity index". It is proportional to the rate of expected bankroll growth when using fractional Kelly...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
09-01-2005, 11:00 PM
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Replies: 64
Views: 251
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-30-2005, 11:04 PM
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Replies: 64
Views: 251
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-30-2005, 03:13 PM
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Replies: 64
Views: 251
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-29-2005, 11:00 PM
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Replies: 75
Views: 261
Re: How About THIS Morals -Ethics Question?
How about this then: Your choice is between 100 people being killed and having to tear the skin off of a 1 year old baby with a pair of plyers. This is from a freshman philosophy course...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-28-2005, 08:47 PM
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Replies: 64
Views: 251
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