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Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-19-2005, 07:09 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 4
Posted By chris_a
Re: Some Offsuit hand Winrates

[ QUOTE ]

but is that all of it? Are other people overvaluing their K9o, and playing more than they should? Are you finding more profitble situations to play it? Are you just a luckbox?

[/...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 11-18-2005, 11:28 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 4
Posted By chris_a
Re: Some Offsuit hand Winrates

K9o: 198 times, -0.02 bb/hand
Q9o: 216 times, -0.06 bb/hand
J9o: 220 times, -0.03 bb/hand
T9o: 201 times, 0.00 bb/hand

So you are using these just as a figure of merit against other neighboring...
Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine 09-15-2005, 12:00 AM
Replies: 9
CV
Views: 3
Posted By chris_a
Re: CV

I think we are arguing separate points. My point is: If you have the sufficient bankroll to have a low chance of going bust in a game, then maximizing EV in that game is clearly your best long term...
Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine 09-12-2005, 09:33 PM
Replies: 9
CV
Views: 3
Posted By chris_a
Re: CV

[ QUOTE ]
The point of this in poker is that if you are playing games with an 'appropriate' bankroll, then your 'CV' is a good way in theory of comparing different games. This is a refinement of...
Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine 09-07-2005, 08:57 AM
Replies: 9
CV
Views: 3
Posted By chris_a
Re: CV

The thing that you want to maximize is the expected value of your cash prize which is different from the EV in terms of tournament chips.

For instance, if you are in a tournament that pays the top...
Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine 09-06-2005, 09:53 PM
Replies: 9
CV
Views: 3
Posted By chris_a
Re: CV

Thanks...

I don't know what you mean by "optimal point in a 100 player tourneyment." Then again, I'm not much of a tournament player so maybe I'm missing out on some lingo. Maybe you can either...
Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine 09-01-2005, 11:49 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 3
Posted By chris_a
Re: Major Problem with Bill Chin\'s Article on Variance

[ QUOTE ]
Such as computing the probability that a 2 BB/100 player with SD = 15 BB/100 will experience a loss over a given set of 2000 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just how far from Gaussian do you...
Forum: Two Plus Two Internet Magazine 09-01-2005, 09:36 PM
Replies: 29
Views: 3
Posted By chris_a
Re: Self serving magazine articles

What would you consider to be a "more interesting article"?
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 07-16-2005, 02:57 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 3
Posted By chris_a
Re: Redefining \"Cold-Decked\"

For a binomial distribution (sums of yes/no events) the standard deviation of the event after N hands is:

sqrt(p * (1-p) * N)

So if your true VPIP is 17%, then after 1000 hands your standard...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 07-16-2005, 10:41 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 4
Posted By chris_a
Re: Do I suck at folding?

Just saying that you disagree is pointless.

I was thinking the same thing about check/calling to induce a bluff.. You're either way ahead or way behind.

Maybe you could explain why you...
Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded 07-16-2005, 12:15 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 4
Posted By chris_a
Stat Question - Blind Win Rates

First post on HUSH.

In Party 1/2 6 max (or comparable 6 max games) what are reasonable win rates (or more accurately loss rates) in the blinds?

I don't have a lot of hands at all, and I'm...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-18-2005, 06:17 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 12
Posted By chris_a
Re: Throw this away or draw to ~4 outs?

My bad. I miscalculated. For some reason I was thinking that someone having an Ace made our Kings dead.

This hand is probably worth about 4-5 outs. Probably good enough for an overcall in this...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-18-2005, 06:12 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1
Posted By chris_a
Re: So what\'s the consensus on this river? (flush)

[ QUOTE ]
Eh, give me an example where going for overcalls with the nuts is right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, board is not suited and is AQJK2. You have a TT. There is a bettor and you are second to...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-18-2005, 11:47 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 1
Posted By chris_a
Re: So what\'s the consensus on this river? (flush)

[ QUOTE ]

Good thought. Going for overcalls on the river with the nuts is pretty useless IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it matter whether you have the nuts? There are times when going for...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-18-2005, 11:38 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 31
Posted By chris_a
Re: Suffering a 140BB downswing. Need help

Assuming your Standard Deviation is 15BB/100 and your win rate is 2BB/100, events like this will happen very infrequently. On the order of once every 5,000 sessions of length 750.

Of course if you...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-18-2005, 11:27 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 12
Posted By chris_a
Re: Throw this away or draw to ~4 outs?

4 outs is probably being nice considering the turn bettor is representing a weak Ace, and considering MP3 called the bet already.

I would say closer to 3 outs. You need the pot to be about 15...
Forum: Probability 05-13-2005, 01:58 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 10
Posted By chris_a
Re: Why????

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand where the math is in backgammon?

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume by "math" you mean skill. The skill in backgammon is in placing your pieces so that less of your opponents...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-13-2005, 10:55 AM
Replies: 25
Views: 26
Posted By chris_a
Re: hAA hAA hAA

He doesn't seem so ABC if he check raises the turn and checks the river.

What could he have CR'ed the turn with?

a) Two pair/Set. Then why wouldn't he have bet the river? Going for another...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-13-2005, 10:35 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 9
Posted By chris_a
Re: BB / 100

[ QUOTE ]
per 100 hands dealt

[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-12-2005, 06:03 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 16
Posted By chris_a
Re: I hate KK

I personally wouldn't raise the flop after a bet and two callers here. You are "overraising" (I don't know if this term exists, but I'm using it to mean raising calls).

You don't have to assume...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-12-2005, 03:08 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 42
Posted By chris_a
Re: JTo on the button 6max

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: Raise. Your not getting bet into often enough, and your hand is not nearly strong enough to slowplay 3 handed. Plus raising helps to define your hand on the cheaper street.

[/...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-11-2005, 11:41 AM
Replies: 130
Views: 131
Posted By chris_a
Re: C.H.U.M.P official rules post, with players list

[ QUOTE ]
All matches will be 50BB freezeouts, both players start with $2 on the table, match ends when I player has all $4 .. no rebuys

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean all $4 minus rake payed?
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-05-2005, 04:25 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 8
Posted By chris_a
Re: Value bet this river? AJo on the button

Considering the possible hands that he would be the flop with, and the fact that he already checked the river, you should bet this for value. More often than check-raising, a player will lead out on...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-02-2005, 08:14 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 7
Posted By chris_a
Re: General positional leak

[ QUOTE ]
Some people says I play exacly the same hands in ever position, I dont understand how they can see this only whit my positional stats...

[/ QUOTE ]

"Exactly" is a figure of...
Forum: Micro-Limits 05-02-2005, 08:03 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 16
Posted By chris_a
Re: Please comment on my pathetic stats

The went to showdown scares me for 25k hands. This should probably be higher unless you've been running really bad for 20k of the hands and have been properly folding (very very unlikely).

Your...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 236

 
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