Forum: Probability
12-26-2005, 12:02 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 181
Re: Huh ?
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Question: Am I correct that only maniac on amphetamines could maintain such a SD (80 BB/100hands) and that even this maniac would have to work amazingly hard to do so ?
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Forum: Probability
12-24-2005, 11:53 AM
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Replies: 19
Views: 171
Re: Clarification
Uh, this is a heads-up game. You don't specify SD, only winrate, SD then follows. SD~$10 for a wide range of winrates. In the specified case SD=$9.8.
1% BR=-ln(0.01)/2 * 9.8^2/1 = $221 = 20...
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Forum: Probability
10-28-2005, 10:46 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 86
Re: Solving for standard deviation
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If so, you can estimate all kinds of things regarding the risk per ROUND of betting.
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He doesn't want to calculate risk per ROUND of betting, he wants to calculate risk per...
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Forum: Probability
10-20-2005, 09:49 PM
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Replies: 31
Views: 511
Re: Results
Awesome /images/graemlins/grin.gif I thought 20% would pick 1 but I forgot this is an advantage gambling forum. davebl, well played.
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Forum: Internet Gambling
10-19-2005, 09:32 PM
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Replies: 53
Views: 249
Re: Lottery at the +EV Point
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One thing to remember when discussing whether or not playing a game with a large progressive jackpot is +EV is that at some point in time money will have a diminishing marginal utility for...
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Forum: Other Gambling Games
10-19-2005, 08:43 AM
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Replies: 36
Views: 285
Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
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Guys...who gives a rats ass if it's a -EV.
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This is exactly wrong. Who gives a rats ass if it's +EV? When EV is dominated by a 8-digit jackpot, and your bankroll is not...
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Forum: Other Gambling Games
10-14-2005, 02:18 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 94
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Forum: One-table Tournaments
08-19-2005, 06:47 PM
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Replies: 40
Views: 163
Re: Grand Slam!!!!!
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4 10ths -"Prisoner's Welcome"
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I dont think I have or ever will see that one in my poker career.
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Done that. I average 2-3% 10th place and have...
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Forum: One-table Tournaments
08-17-2005, 08:32 PM
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Replies: 60
Views: 249
Re: Apples vs. Oranges
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Game A (Sample size 1175 events)
$/event $0.95
SD$/event $17.90
Bankroll required for .5% ROR = $1388
Multitable earn = $23.69/hr
Game B (Sample size = 930 events)
$/event =...
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Forum: Probability
08-06-2005, 05:39 AM
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Replies: 2
Views: 90
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Forum: Internet Gambling
07-26-2005, 10:53 AM
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Replies: 211
Views: 785
Re: Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?
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How about this for a real risk of ruin, not a hypothetical one where you might be able to get staked, etc: You have AsAc on a board of AhAd10d Your opponent holds Jd2h, and his cards...
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Forum: Internet Gambling
07-26-2005, 10:39 AM
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Replies: 211
Views: 785
Re: Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?
I just wanted to point out that when the answer to the OP's question depends on how big your bankroll is, the definition of bankroll used to come to that conclusion is not very meaningful. I like to...
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Forum: Internet Gambling
07-26-2005, 10:06 AM
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Replies: 211
Views: 785
Re: Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?
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Another post commented: well, what happens when you win, do you do it again? It brings up an interesting point, because of course the expected value of taking this proposition to...
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Forum: Poker Theory
07-24-2005, 06:56 AM
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Replies: 22
Views: 182
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Forum: Poker Theory
07-24-2005, 04:17 AM
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Replies: 22
Views: 182
Re: allowing your opponent to martingale you
Pzhon is 100% right.
When you have an advantage, it is better to be on the receiving end of a martingale, given that EV is the same whether you are martingaling or the other player is. Your...
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Forum: One-table Tournaments
07-24-2005, 03:51 AM
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Replies: 43
Views: 164
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Forum: One-table Tournaments
07-23-2005, 06:19 PM
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Replies: 43
Views: 164
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Forum: Other Gambling Games
07-19-2005, 08:58 PM
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Replies: 18
Views: 122
Re: The lottery, The odds, and You
Once again, this calculation is not too meaningful except for giving the upper bound on how much you'd pay for this ticket. To calculate how much you should pay for this ticket, you need to build...
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Forum: One-table Tournaments
07-19-2005, 08:01 AM
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Replies: 18
Views: 84
Re: Mathmetically speaking
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Randomness has no memory. If you got dealt AA ten times in a row the chance that you'll get it an 11th time is the same as if you haven't been dealt AA in the last 1000 hands.
Actually,...
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Forum: Other Gambling Games
07-13-2005, 07:12 AM
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Replies: 18
Views: 122
Re: The lottery, The odds, and You
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what do you mean by +CE? I have never heard this term before and am unsure of its exact meaning.
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A flat fee that you would take in exchange for the gamble -- basically the...
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Forum: Other Gambling Games
07-12-2005, 10:00 PM
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Replies: 18
Views: 122
Re: The lottery, The odds, and You
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anyone have any other ideas on this topic?
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When you talk about lotteries, EV alone is an absurd measure. A lottery has to be +CE (certainty equivalent) to justify...
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Forum: Probability
06-15-2005, 07:13 AM
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Replies: 15
Views: 136
Re: Advanced Sticky Bonus Questions
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RTTmax can be interpreted as the risk tolerance treshold for an infinite wage.
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This loses me. Why can it be interpreted this way? Just because it takes no...
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Forum: Probability
06-15-2005, 03:23 AM
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Replies: 15
Views: 136
Re: Advanced Sticky Bonus Questions
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So what is RTTMax?
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Here is a very basic gambling question. You have two "wagers" that take you the same time to play through, and the first one provides more value with...
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Forum: Probability
06-13-2005, 07:39 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 136
Re: Advanced Sticky Bonus Questions
Finally, there are a couple of things that are not quite right with my analysis of the sticky targets. I haven't posted these before, because in the end, my formula is just a recommendatation, and...
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Forum: Probability
06-13-2005, 07:15 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 136
Re: Advanced Sticky Bonus Questions
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now how do you incorporate the house edge into this argument? ... Would you first calculate the simple expected end amount of playing out the wagering requirement as
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