Forum: Sports Betting
12-31-2005, 02:22 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 1,322
Re: Ravens vs Browns
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I like to use the Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA ratings, I basically convert them to point spreads, factor in a home field advantage and adjust for injuries subjectively. It's worked...
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-31-2005, 02:21 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 1,322
Re: Ravens vs Browns
Fez thinks the Browns will be +3.5 by game time. So if you like the Ravens - take them now. If you like the Browns, then wait.
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-31-2005, 02:18 AM
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Replies: 3
Views: 1,170
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-29-2005, 05:30 AM
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Replies: 2
Views: 527
Re: middling CFB totals
I can't answer with 100% confidence, but the above example almost has to be a great middle. I don't have a CFB database, but according to my NFL DB, the equivalent price of O45.5 -110 at O49.5 is...
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-29-2005, 01:12 AM
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Replies: 7
Views: 1,064
Re: Mammoth SIA/Pinny scalp
Mansion exchange has got pretty much the same thing going hanging a 4.5 -104. It's a guaranteed win, but I think it is slightly more +EV than taking NE -7 +132 at Pinnacle.
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-29-2005, 12:55 AM
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Replies: 7
Views: 1,064
Re: Mammoth SIA/Pinny scalp
I really wish I had won my lost middle at SIA rather than Mansion. Could only do 512 rather than the full 1K.
Still, very nice find.
Pinny seems to be overvaluing the 7 for some reason.
...
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-28-2005, 06:44 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 436
Re: Sports Handicapping Books
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Wong's book is pretty much the Super System of handicapping.
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IIRC Wong's book doesn't really go into handicapping. It points out the basic trends (home dogs are good,...
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-28-2005, 06:18 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 662
Re: Arbs
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[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.
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Pesky compound interest. Thanks!
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-28-2005, 05:46 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 2,243
Re: I was offered this CFB bet ND/USC
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You get OSU and USC? WTF are you waiting for?
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I think he gets ND, but I might be wrong. Certainly if he gets OSU/USC this is a no-brainer.
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-28-2005, 05:40 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 2,243
Re: I was offered this CFB bet ND/USC
the moneyline on Texas is much higher than the moneyline on ND. If you have any concerns, you could always place ML bets on Ohio State and Texas to guarantee a small amount of cash.
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-28-2005, 04:46 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 662
Re: Arbs
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In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.
In the real world, a more typical...
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-28-2005, 04:35 PM
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Replies: 20
Views: 2,698
Re: SIA
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[ QUOTE ]
went to bet Boise State at Bowman's today. I go to the lines and it says +3 EV. Great. I log in and the number is red and it is just a 3 (-110). I log off and it is +3 EV...
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-28-2005, 03:24 PM
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Replies: 20
Views: 2,698
Re: SIA
went to bet Boise State at Bowman's today. I go to the lines and it says +3 EV. Great. I log in and the number is red and it is just a 3 (-110). I log off and it is +3 EV again.
Crap.
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-28-2005, 04:35 AM
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Replies: 2
Views: 280
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-28-2005, 04:00 AM
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Replies: 1
Views: 280
Re: Middling Opportunity Help
I hope I am not going to get bashed for plugging my own web site - but as far as I know it is the only utility on the net to answer these questions. Anyway, you should find an answer on how to...
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Forum: Sporting Events
12-26-2005, 10:52 PM
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Replies: 29
Views: 5,284
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-26-2005, 10:06 PM
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Replies: 20
Views: 2,698
Re: SIA
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i made one cashout with them so far and it was doing quickly via neteller. i wouldn't say the dog lines are as good as bowmans (no friday afternoon specials),
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I always...
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-26-2005, 08:32 PM
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Replies: 20
Views: 2,698
Re: SIA
Lines are even better than Bowman's square side IMO. As CCx said, they seem slow to adjust (as well as shading the favorite side as much as Bowman's). I frequently find middles/scalps checking SIA...
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Forum: Sporting Events
12-26-2005, 08:07 PM
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Replies: 17
Views: 1,713
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Forum: Sporting Events
12-26-2005, 04:18 AM
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Replies: 43
Views: 6,811
Re: Chicago vs Green Bay
betting either team +/- 7 was a terrible bet. The Bears had a better line earlier in the week, and the Packers had a better line before game time. If you liked the Bears at -7, why not bet them in...
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Forum: Sporting Events
12-25-2005, 06:45 PM
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Replies: 43
Views: 6,811
Re: Chicago vs Green Bay
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Bears were only favored by 7. Hopefully many of you got in on that one.
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Yeah, I bet my whole bankroll, and sold my car and house to get down on that one. I can't...
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Forum: Sporting Events
12-25-2005, 06:27 PM
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Replies: 43
Views: 6,811
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Forum: Other Other Topics
12-24-2005, 10:06 PM
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Replies: 17
Views: 1,202
Re: Duvel
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That red was good. I'm sleepy.
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Sweet. I will buy a bottle soon. I just opened a 750 of Three Philosophers...yum
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Forum: Sporting Events
12-24-2005, 07:41 PM
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Replies: 27
Views: 1,384
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Forum: Sports Betting
12-23-2005, 01:58 AM
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Replies: 8
Views: 895
Re: KC +1.5 at home vs SD??
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I didn't really make my point. My point was that SD winning by 8 at home when they were 5.5 favs, is not that big of a deal. The person I had responded to had pointed out that they won...
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