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Posts Made By:
probman
Forum:
Probability
07-22-2005, 04:37 PM
Replies:
4
What exactly is standard deviation?
Views:
93
Posted By
probman
Re: What exactly is standard deviation?
[ QUOTE ]
For instance, since 68% of people's IQ score falls between 85-115, then 15 is determined as the standard deviation, right?
[/ QUOTE ]
Your statement is true only for...
Forum:
Probability
06-30-2005, 02:27 PM
Replies:
35
Which Twin has the Tony?
Views:
589
Posted By
probman
Re: Which Twin has the Tony?
I have to agree with icepoker. Form your posts in this thread, it is quite clear that you have fundamental flaws in your understanding of probability. What makes it worse is your biting attempts to...
Forum:
Probability
06-14-2005, 01:26 PM
Replies:
6
A theoretical game
Views:
95
Posted By
probman
Re: A theoretical game
This game is called the Saint Petersburg Paradox. If you were to only look at EV, then you are left with an apparent paradox. One needs to look at the expected log of the value of a portfolio that...
Forum:
Probability
06-08-2005, 01:53 PM
Replies:
4
simple EV calculation, but I don't know how to set it up?
Views:
100
Posted By
probman
Re: simple EV calculation, but I don\'t know how to set it up?
Let p=prob(no king shows up in five cards). It is easy to see that
p = (48/52)(47/51)(46/50)(45/49)(44/48) = C(48,5)/C(52,5).
We then have
EV = pE[V|no kings] + (1-p)E[V|at least one...
Forum:
Probability
05-19-2005, 12:03 AM
Replies:
30
Probability BrainTeaser (toughie)
Views:
240
Posted By
probman
Simple solution
I didn't see the solution posted earlier until after I posted. Here it is anyway.
Here's a simple solution. I can achieve 75% success without using all four players, but simply three. Here...
Forum:
Probability
05-18-2005, 11:42 PM
Replies:
5
Expected value problem
Views:
89
Posted By
probman
Re: Expected value problem
You're right. I over thought the problem.
Forum:
Probability
05-18-2005, 11:13 PM
Replies:
5
Expected value problem
Views:
89
Posted By
probman
Re: Expected value problem
Your analysis is wrong. You assume that the event that the boxes are empty are iid events and therefore the expected number of empty boxes is simpley the probability that a given box is empty times...
Forum:
Probability
05-18-2005, 04:37 PM
Replies:
10
Looking for some Math course suggestions
Views:
141
Posted By
probman
Re: Looking for some Math course suggestions
Why are you interested in only a statistics course and not a course in probability as well? They are definitely not the same and both have their uses when it comes to poker. However it is hard to...
Forum:
Probability
03-17-2005, 06:04 PM
Replies:
18
a probability brainteaser from OOT
Views:
154
Posted By
probman
Re: a probability brainteaser from OOT
The 1% stipulation comes from assuming a finite population size, n, with n/2 men and n/2 women. If n is small then the non-replacement effect you mentioned is significant. However, as n grows large...
Forum:
Probability
03-17-2005, 05:22 PM
Replies:
18
a probability brainteaser from OOT
Views:
154
Posted By
probman
Re: a probability brainteaser from OOT
After quickly reading through the thread it seems that most people converged to the correct answer of 1/3. The argument you provide it the standard one given for this rather famous problem.
There...
Forum:
Probability
03-15-2005, 01:42 PM
Replies:
12
Coin Toss Challenge
Views:
121
Posted By
probman
Re: Coin Toss Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
As others have mentioned, there are various ways to do this, all of them requiring a random number of flips.
The shortest procedure is this one:
Flip a coin until heads comes up for...
Forum:
Probability
03-14-2005, 03:23 PM
Replies:
12
Coin Toss Challenge
Views:
121
Posted By
probman
Re: Coin Toss Challenge
There is a nice answer to this type of question. Let's say you have a fair coin and want to design a game where player A wins with probability p and player B with probability 1-p. Here p can be any...
Forum:
Probability
03-09-2005, 03:01 PM
Replies:
4
Running it twice
Views:
88
Posted By
probman
Re: Running it twice
The EV does not change with indpendent identical runs, i.e. the EV of the normalized sum is the EV or the first hand. However, the variance drops of as 1/n. So the more hands you play the smaller...
Showing results 1 to 13 of 13
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