Forum: Brick and Mortar
11-04-2005, 06:45 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 115
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Forum: Probability
07-29-2005, 11:29 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 103
Re: Here\'s a fun one
I'll take a crack at this.
Let N be boxes you buy.
In order NOT to have a complete set, you need to be missing 1 of the figures -
Prob of missing 1 figure in N boxes = 19/20^N
but there are...
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Forum: Probability
06-23-2005, 08:13 AM
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Replies: 16
Views: 135
Re: 3 flopped sets on the flop????
Well - have you played 100,000 3 handed games with each of the players starting with pocket pairs? The 1 in 2000 probability was conditional on 3 players, each starting with a poker pair.
Moo!
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Forum: Probability
06-21-2005, 10:35 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 90
Re: Fun Problem # 4 (Last)
Oh wow! This is an incredibly elegant solution. Kudos! I was tearing my hair out trying to figure out how to solve this. Now I can stop and give my poor scalp a break.
Cheers,
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Forum: Probability
06-21-2005, 01:58 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 89
Re: Fun Problem # 3
I could not solve the problem analytically, but using a simulation - I'm getting roughly between 13 and 14 cards - so ... excellent guess!
Moo!
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Forum: Probability
06-20-2005, 08:19 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 86
Re: neteller cash giveaway
Ok,
let's assume there are no more entries and all 3 draws are done today - Assuming you'd be spending 5000 points (5 weeklys, 2 bi-weeklys or 1 monthly) approximate EV of each of the draws is: ...
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Forum: Probability
06-20-2005, 09:08 AM
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Replies: 8
Views: 99
Re: 1/x chance, odds on favorite?
1/x chance of happening
so (x-1)/x of it not happening
for it to be favourite,
1 - [(x-1)/x]^n > 0.5
[(x-1)/x]^n <0.5
n * ln[(x-1)/x] < ln(0.5)
n > ln(0.5)/ln[(x-1)/x]
So - say it's 1/10
n...
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Forum: Probability
06-17-2005, 05:58 PM
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Replies: 26
Views: 694
Re: Running It Twice
OK - let's do this for a really simple example -
You hold KK
Your mortal enemy holds QQ
The flop and turn come
[ K Q Q ] [5]
you're both all in on the turn - flip your cards and decide...
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Forum: Probability
06-15-2005, 08:06 AM
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Replies: 9
Views: 92
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Forum: Probability
06-14-2005, 09:33 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 89
Re: A theoretical game
We were college students back then so that's pretty relevant. I think even among (degenerate gambling) college student, a $127 debt would be honoured so -
1/2*1+
1/4*2+
1/8*4+
1/16*8+...
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Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em
06-14-2005, 07:50 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 16
Re: A 9 suited hand
Fold? I'm betting I'm beat by flush/set whatever - $8 into to win a (currently) $36 pot isn't justified for a 4 outer - even with implied pot odds (of, say, another $20 - 1 more bb on turn and 2 more...
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Forum: Probability
06-14-2005, 12:36 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 104
Re: the lottery, it COULD be +ev
I think a couple of things make an +EV very unlikely -
1. Taxes - I don't know about the UK, but in the US the money you spend is not tax deductable (at least I don't think so) and your winnings...
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Forum: Probability
06-14-2005, 10:58 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 89
Re: A theoretical game
A friend of mine actually offered me the other side of the bet (I would get +inf EV). She wanted $8 and I said done!
We were playing monopoly at the time so we used odds and evens on the dice...
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Forum: Probability
06-14-2005, 10:52 AM
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Replies: 40
Views: 250
Re: Three Doors
For the second one - gievn 2 children - combinations are
BB - chance of Lisa = 0
BG - chance of Lisa = 1/1000
GB - chance of Lisa = 1/1000
GG - chance of Lisa = 1 - chance of no Lisa = (1 -...
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Forum: Brick and Mortar
06-14-2005, 10:44 AM
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Replies: 21
Views: 185
Re: B&M Player I Can\'t Figure Out
Here's another possible story - He's independently incredible wealthy - does not need poker money. He knows how to play well and (as we can clearly see) is quite fearless. This ties is with the Q-3...
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Forum: Probability
06-14-2005, 08:06 AM
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Replies: 40
Views: 250
Re: Three Doors
Is the answer 1/3 in the first problem?
and approximately 1/2 in the second answer?
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Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em
06-13-2005, 09:52 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 50
Re: Meep donkbets the flushy turn
I'd raise and call a reraise - fold river if unimproved. Check through on the river if called and no heart falls. I have no clue who this meep person is but you seem to respect him.
Against the...
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Forum: Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em
06-13-2005, 06:46 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 72
Re: Aggro River Raise 20/40 PP
I think you're ahead, but I don't like the raise - who's calling you that you beat? JT? (any-10?)would likely not bet the river - and if they do, they may not call the raise.
A sooted 8-9 maybe?...
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Forum: Probability
06-13-2005, 03:00 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 85
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Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em
06-13-2005, 11:06 AM
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Replies: 12
Views: 49
Re: Calling a raise from BB vs lone EP
I think the answer probably hinges on bad position and future streets. If you were going all in with the call, then by all means, call away with 7-2o.
If not, you've got to be thinking about all...
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Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em
06-12-2005, 10:52 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 31
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Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em
06-12-2005, 10:43 PM
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Replies: 34
Views: 127
Re: Daily Hand Post : ATs in the BB
I'm with you in thinking QJ suited (not clubs) is one of the more likley holding - flops open-ended straight draw with backdoor flush draw and two semi-clean overcard outs.
I personally bet and 3...
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Forum: Psychology
06-12-2005, 10:23 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 113
Re: Chopping the blinds
I've seen it played both ways (chop/no chop) at 5/10. I generally ask once each way, left and right (blind - without looking at my cards) and try and make that binding (not that there's much chopping...
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Forum: Psychology
06-12-2005, 08:33 PM
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Replies: 28
Views: 179
Re: Best way to put in the hours
I believe the standard rule is 3 orbits of missed blinds and you're out - Incidentally, this is true in B&M too (just very rarely, if ever, enforced if there are any chips left to save the players...
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Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded
06-12-2005, 12:54 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 43
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