Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

I haven't played at this limit much and am still trying to cut out a lot of leaks, especially in hands like this where I'm not used to deciding how far to go with just a good ace. The game is the typical 15/30 on Party.

Middle position player has open raised, folded to me in a blind and I 3-bet. Heads up to the flop.

Flop is t 9 x. I bet and my opponent quickly calls.

Turn is a blank. I bet and he calls.

River another blank. I bet and he calls.

My thinking on the flop after he calls is that he has something like 77 or Ax. On the river I'm 95% sure I'm getting called so I'm betting for value. A small pocket pair is going to bet if checked to, and a worse ace is going to check so I feel like I'm gaining a bet the small % of the time I'm ahead, losing the same amount if I check/call (which I planned on doing).

My opponent had a9o, which I think he played the same as he would 77 so my read was ok.

I felt good about my play at the time but I've rethought. I didn't think a raise was that much of a possibility, but now I think tt or 99 might wait and pop me on the river (unlikely but possible). I also think I lose out on a possible bet by qj/kj/kq if I bet the river. And if I get raised by those hands, or any other hands he might bluff with, I just cost myself the entire pot.

Commments on the flop through the river would be appreciated.

Re: Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

the quick calls can be quite a tell sometimes. anyway, i will bet this one on the end if the following 3 conditions are met:

1: i put him on a weaker ace
2: i think he will call with a weaker ace
3: i want to believe i am very clever

usually i think it's best to induce here, but if you read them on an ace betting is the way to go, so nice hand. i don't find the situation happens too often.

Re: Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the quick calls can be quite a tell sometimes. anyway, i will bet this one on the end if the following 3 conditions are met:

1: i put him on a weaker ace
2: i think he will call with a weaker ace
3: i want to believe i am very clever

usually i think it's best to induce here, but if you read them on an ace betting is the way to go, so nice hand. i don't find the situation happens too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

notes: AK pusher. counter measure: call down and/or delay raise.

Re: Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

will players really be calling down with less then AK to make a play like this worth it? Yeah, a lot of times your opponent holds Ax, but, like in your case, he has paired up his 'x', and will call all the way.

My AK's have been as cold as 72o so maybe i'm just overestimating my opponents.

Re: Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

I had no info on the guy prior to the hand so my opponent was "random 15/30 player". It seems that weak aces will call down fairly often, but I'm in the dark as far as how many people will raise a7o from middle/late position AND call all the way with ace high.

The way he called seemed consistent with a pocket pair or unpaired ace, but I figured a pocket pair was more likely because a majority of opponents would call down the same way, where as a lot more players would pitch their bad ace here. So even though ax was a possibility, I was guessing 1 in 5 times that's what he had, the other 4 would be a pocket pair.

I definitely think the river bet was dumb at this point, but what about the rest of the hand? Given my read on the flop, do I committ to showing it down barring a raise on the turn?

Re: Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

I obviously don't know the answer otherwise I wouldn't be posting this, but it seems that him having an ace + him having a 9 or 10 isn't going to happen that often, so even if I'm behind (hopefully to a hand like 77), I'm at least seeing the turn and river with clean outs if I am losing.

Given the fact that it's heads-up and the board isn't terribly scary (as far as how likely it is to have made his hand, not give him a draw), if he raised without a pair I'm probably ahead 75% of the time or more (given that 66% of the time a hand's going to miss the flopped coupled with the lack of broadway cards). This seems like an ok flop to continue with the hand.

Re: Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

the raise a7o / call down with ace high is pretty rare, but it happens. as for a showdown, i would definitely see one unimproved here.

Re: Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the raise a7o / call down with ace high is pretty rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an important point. Loose passive players call down with any ace all the freakin' time, but they don't usually open-raise with them.

Re: Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

So at what point should I have played this hand differently?

Re: Party 15/30 - value bet with AK unimproved?
 

I'm more likely to value bet AK when someone checks to me -- ie, I have position. When first, I'll bet it every once in a while when there is some paint on board (not a T-high board) and my opponent might get off a missed 5-outer, figuring whether he calls or folds, mission accomplished, but my defense against getting my AK value bet to death is check-raising the river with medium-strong hands.