AJ from BB
 

New table and even new client so no reads. Just started playing here after some play over at Poker Stars.

Party Poker 0.50/1.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

I think I got the best hand.

Flop: (10.00 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB folds.

I may get a weak K to fold or just cold call me here if I bet. If I get cold called I have to evaluate on the turn. If I get raised then hmm... I have to think about that.

Turn: (7.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Nice card for me unless someone is sitting with Q10.

River: (11.00 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero ...

Not that I think this 8 of hearts matters since anyone with 88 should have folded by now but I am worried about the 3 cold callers on the turn. How likely am I to have the best hand? I think I should check here since I would really really hate to get raised on the river. A check here may indicate weackness and a weaker hand may bet out like AT, A9 etc...

Re: AJ from BB
 

bet

Re: AJ from BB
 

sometimes I check pf, to keep the pot smaller and not give odds to everyone to draw on you post flop.

Re: AJ from BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes I check pf, to keep the pot smaller and not give odds to everyone to draw on you post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cmon bro, you know this is a terrible argument! To the OP - bet the river easy.

Re: AJ from BB
 

Bet the river. I think you'd have seen more aggression from a set of trips before now. Same for AK.

If raised on the river I think I 3 bet. The range of hands that might raise this river that we beat is attractive. A8s, K8s, KJs, KJo, even J8s.

Of course, we've been full-steam-ahead here, so anyone raising us probably has something.. eh, I'm conflicted. bet/call might be the best line.

Re: AJ from BB
 

Bet the river. You can be scared about what someone else might have. Two pair is a very good hand and can hold up against many opponents. No one else has shown any strength. If someone else had been betting or raising, then maybe you should think about check/calling. But in this situation, it is an easy bet on the river.

Re: AJ from BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cmon bro, you know this is a terrible argument! To the OP - bet the river easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

at .50/1, yea I guess the limpers could have a lot of weak hands and we have a pretty big edge. At 2/4 or 3/6, it's really not that bad to check here to keep the pot small, this way, gutshots and the like will make a mistake by calling. This concept is in HEPFAP, I think it assumes the limpers will have better than average hands, so our edge with AJo is not as big.

Re: AJ from BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cmon bro, you know this is a terrible argument! To the OP - bet the river easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

at .50/1, yea I guess the limpers could have a lot of weak hands and we have a pretty big edge. At 2/4 or 3/6, it's really not that bad to check here to keep the pot small, this way, gutshots and the like will make a mistake by calling. This concept is in HEPFAP, I think it assumes the limpers will have better than average hands, so our edge with AJo is not as big.

[/ QUOTE ]

I often don't raise this from the SB or BB in very multiway pots too. My reasoning goes more along the line that, although we have equity edge here with a good holding, we're going to have to play it out of position for the rest of the hand. I'm not a huge lover of playing decent, but not great, offsuit cards out of position and against many players in a raised pot, and so try to keep the pot smallish. I think it trades a little of the edge in equity for a little temporary safety.

Re: AJ from BB
 

You have to bet this. I think you are losing too many BB's over time by missing the value here. You will get called by vastly inferior hands most of the time.

Re: AJ from BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
How likely am I to have the best hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say about 70% of the time here.