A6s flop play
 

Hey,

Was talking this over with another 2+2er; a semi-consensus was reached but we weren't positive. What would be your play on the flop here?

Reads...not great. Cold-caller is not a great player but not overly loose, and the preflop 3-bettor is like 19/10 but just over 35 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>.

Re: A6s flop play
 

I usually freeze-up against a 3bet from the blinds, so I say fold. I'd call if one of the flopped cards contained a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I just hate being sandwiched inbetween these guys

Re: A6s flop play
 

well we'll certainly be able to win this hand later if he 3-bet TT or JJ. the problem is that the guy probably doesn't 3-bet much more than that (and the other usual hands), and if he has AQ you probably won't get him to fold.

AA, AK, KK, QQ make up 3 + 9 + 3 + 3 = 18 hands
JJ and TT make up 12 hands. heads up we should call because he'll give often give up on the turn with JJ and TT.

the problem imo is that you have a coldcalling hand behind you and a flop likely to hit suited broadway hands like KJs, QJs, etc.

fold it

Re: A6s flop play
 

fold.

AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, JJ, TT.

Against AA you have 2 outs.
Against KK you have effectively 0 outs.
Against QQ you have effectively 0 outs.
Against AK you have 2 outs.
Against AQ you have 2 outs.
Against JJ you have 5 outs.
Against TT you have 5 outs.

There are 3 combos of AA, KK, and QQ. There are 9 combos of AK and AQ and there are 6 combos of JJ and TT.

21 combos 2 outs
12 combos 5 outs
6 combos 0 outs

39 combos total

21/39 times you have 2 outs
12/39 times you have 5 outs
6/ 39 times you have 0 outs

Thus, you have 2.615 outs.

Pot is 10.5:1, best case is 11.5:1. You need somewhere between 3 and 4 outs to call profitably.

Thus, fold.

Tell me if any of my math is wrong.

Re: A6s flop play
 

we don't necessarily have to improve to take this pot from JJ or TT though.

Re: A6s flop play
 

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we don't necessarily have to improve to take this pot from JJ or TT though.

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Yeah, no your math is correct shadow but this above seems to be the crux of the issue that I actually didn't see when I was playing the hand. It seems like a fold is the right move but that raising could be an attractive alternative if we were HU (and didn't have to worry about the guy behind calling two cold with T9s or whatever.

Re: A6s flop play
 

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we don't necessarily have to improve to take this pot from JJ or TT though.

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no but we would need to put a raise in to take it from JJ or TT, likely on the turn

Re: A6s flop play
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we don't necessarily have to improve to take this pot from JJ or TT though.

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no but we would need to put a raise in to take it from JJ or TT, likely on the turn

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yeah that's if he never checks the turn with JJ or TT, and i think he does do that after we call a KQx flop sometimes.