So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

100$ MTT, havent been paying attention so no reads:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 (t1155)
UTG+2 (t735)
Hero (t1080)
MP2 (t2045)
MP3 (t1410)
CO (t2070)
Button (t4015)
SB (t810)
BB (t1205)
UTG (t1745)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t30, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to t135</font>, [color=#666666]6 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t105.

Flop: (t315) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets t150</font>, [color=#CC3333]UTG+1 raises to t425</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to t700</font>

Is this just retarded?

Re: So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

It's a good spot for it, but you need to know either that he's bluffing here a good % of the time or that he'd fold a J here a good % of the time. I don't know why you raised so small, as that's just asking a flush draw to stick around, putting you in a horrible spot on any non-A, non-K turn.

Re: So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

Yes. Did he push?

Re: So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

In my experience in party 100s, at least early on, people do not fold top pair.

Re: So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience in party 100s, at least early on, people do not fold top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm sure plenty of people are folding top pair, but you (duh) don't see it when it happens.

Re: So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In my experience in party 100s, at least early on, people do not fold top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm sure plenty of people are folding top pair, but you (duh) don't see it when it happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed.

But in general when I try bluffs like this, I get called by J9o a lot.

Of course, there is that whole selective memory thing.

Re: So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

As always, great reasoning has been provided for this play.

Roman, explain your thought process.

Re: So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

It's not that I haven't done this, but you generally want a deeper stack when you do, and a sense that he's at least capable of bluffing a J44 board without a pair.

Here, he's (probably) not gonna go away after putting half his stack in.

Re: So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

With the opponent holding J-X, X not being Ace or King, you have approximately 29% equity with you two overs and back-door flush draw.

Pot size after villian's raise t890.

If you push to villian raise you're getting a total of t2,205 (2 x your initial stack plus the blinds) for your remaining t795 should you win:

71% x 0 = 0
29% x t2,205 = t639.

Net loss: t156

So you need villian to fold t156/t890 = 17.5% of the time (or less than one out of five) to make a push break-even.

I believe that's possible, but you're probably mainly increasing your variance without increasing your equity. (I don't understand the re-raise to t700, leaving yourself with t95 is basically reducing equity - or am I getting something completely wrong here?)

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Re: So I prolly shouldn\'t be trying this without reads
 

He has no reason since he has no reads, he thinks that his opponent is thinking that its a paired flop and my opponent probably didn't hit so i'm going to check raise him off his hand. Therefore Roman thinks his AK should be best enough of the time to make the reraise, or thats what i think at least. Maybe he wasn't thinking since he had no reads and just made this bet on instincts.