Easy bet/fold on the river?
 

Among my biggest leaks is a failure to bet/fold the river often enough. I've been looking for spots to bet/fold, and this one seemed like a good spot for it. Agreed?

Villain is fish - 62/12/0.65.

Question: Assuming this line is best, would anything change if villain were trickier/more aggressive?

Villain open-raises in MP2. Hero 3-bets with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], only villain calls.

Flop [T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]. Villain checks, hero bets, villain calls.

Turn [A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]. Villain checks, hero bets, villain calls.

River [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]. Villain checks, hero bets, planning to fold to a raise.

Re: Easy bet/fold on the river?
 

AJ is possible, and I hands like AT and A9 are as well, but what worries me is that Villain has been playing like someone who has JJ or a queen or two.

Anyway, here are some combos:

AJ = 6
AT = 6
A9 = 6

QQ = 6
JJ = 3
AQ = 8

I don't think this is a complete range, but while you do beat a hand like KJ, you also lose to hands like KQ and A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and a strangely played set of nines.

I'm going to admit that I might be scared enough on the river to check behind. But others may tell you a bet is better (and they may be right if they do). In any event, if you do bet, I think you should fold to a raise. There is one risk, though, which is that if Villain has, say, AJ, and he decides he loves his aces up on the river, a bet-fold line will end up costing you the pot. And, to me, the value bet seems very thin to begin with. So I think I'm checking behind.

Re: Easy bet/fold on the river?
 

I concur. This river fills up many drawing hands and leaves all hands you beat scared. check behind. People love to check raise on the river after filing up their draw, and I love to disappoint them.

If I have seen the opponent call much too often in the face of danger with nothing, then I can start thinking about a raise, but it has a high burden of proof.

Re: Easy bet/fold on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I concur. This river fills up many drawing hands and leaves all hands you beat scared. check behind. People love to check raise on the river after filing up their draw, and I love to disappoint them.

If I have seen the opponent call much too often in the face of danger with nothing, then I can start thinking about a raise, but it has a high burden of proof.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Fishy players love to check raise so I like checking the river.

Re: Easy bet/fold on the river?
 

Against most Villians I agree with checking behind on that river.....against a 62/12/0.65, I'm betting.