Worthwhile Semi-Bluff?
 

This was early today, so I don't entirely recall my opponent. PT has him at 45/19/1.4. I'm having trouble figuring out how often I'm successful here. Is the pot too small for a semi-bluff that may cost me two bets?

** Game ID 599450874 starting - 2005-12-03 12:07:10
** Running Shoes [Hold 'em] (10.00|20.00 Fixed Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

muckthenut posted the small blind - $5.00
ku_kid posted the big blind - $10.00

** Dealing card to TheBryce: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

2oops2 folded
TheBryce raised - $10.00
SongheJe called - $10.00
DonD30 folded
muckthenut folded
ku_kid folded

** Dealing the flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

TheBryce bet - $10.00
SongheJe raised - $20.00
TheBryce called - $20.00

** Dealing the turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

TheBryce checked
SongheJe bet - $20.00
TheBryce raised - $40.00

Re: Worthwhile Semi-Bluff?
 

Successful in what sense..him folding?

I'd estimate that works maybe 5% of the time...if your quite lucky.

If you don't discount any of your outs at all and you are sure you wont get 3-bet its almost exactly even.

Given your A and K outs aren't always good by themselves and you may get 3-bet I dont really like it here.

After the flop action I think this guy reads you for overcards and feels his pair is good .

Re: Worthwhile Semi-Bluff?
 

i would probably 3bet the flop. You're pretty money against his range assuming it includes hands like AT/KT. Don't like pulling any moves on the turn he's not folding

Re: Worthwhile Semi-Bluff?
 

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i would probably 3bet the flop. You're pretty money against his range assuming it includes hands like AT/KT. Don't like pulling any moves on the turn he's not folding

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Ditto.