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-   -   Full House on Flop Turns Nasty (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=386933)

Wolffink 11-28-2005 04:54 PM

Full House on Flop Turns Nasty
 
I wonder about this. I've heard that you should pot it on the flop to try to make people with a sole 8 pay to play. But then it seems like a perfect stealing opportunity for Villains in late position when high cards come later on the turn and river.

For example:

Hero [Ah, 3h, 8s, 4s]

Flop 8 8 3 Rainbow

Hero pots it on the flop, two callers.

Turn: [J]

Hero bets 2/3rds the pot. One fold. Villain raises pot. Hero calls.

River: [K]

Hero checks. Villain raises pot.

Fold? Or crying call?

Should hero reraise the turn? Make a lead out bet on the river and fold if raised?

This situation bothers me because I don't normally put my whole stack at risk with an underfull, but it seems easy to do here to call down Villain.

I'm convinced I have the top hand (usually) on the flop. And come on, Villain expects me to believe the Jack just happened to make him the top house on the turn? Then the river comes, and the only thing I can beat is a bluff.

11-28-2005 07:05 PM

Re: Full House on Flop Turns Nasty
 
If I were in your spot, I would be very reluctant to give the villian credit for an 8. What are the odds of villian having eight post-flop? Around 8.8% right? Any reads on the villian at all? What limit?

If he doesn't have an 8, then he could have only beat you with JJxx or KKxx. Would villian call you with that in the face of such adversity? What's your table image like? If villian is calling you with JJxx or KKxx and villian is good, you're probably bluffing too much.

12-02-2005 11:15 PM

Re: Full House on Flop Turns Nasty
 
hmm. you dont like to see that raise on the river. Id like to know the amount your playing for as it may affect what type of players your playing with. Also. I agree with last poster. You probably have to call b/c the only hand that he might have thats really playable preflop is like 89TJ or something. Otherwise youd had to put him on something like A28X and if I had 888 A kicker nut low draw on the flop id have reraised.

12-02-2005 11:21 PM

Re: Full House on Flop Turns Nasty
 
I don't know what these other guys are talking about; the other player probably has the other 8, if you're lucky he's trying to run you off a scared 8 w/ something like A8 or playing 33 very badly. A28 is another possibility.

In any case, I reraise all-in on the turn (edit: I should qualify that you do this only against someone you know isn't a rock. if you have stats telling you this guy doesn't get out of line, just call, and dump on the river if you don't catch low); you don't want a tough decision on the river, and your low draw is still live. Also, why lead for 2/3 of the pot? That's just begging to be moved on. Only lead for 2/3 when you're planning to move in on a raise... that's the point of a bluff-inducing bet--induce a bluff, not induce a bet that's going to make you want to fold.

12-02-2005 11:22 PM

Re: Full House on Flop Turns Nasty
 
What buy-in is this?

I would fold this river.


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