How long can you run good?
 

Hi all,

Been searching for the FAQ, can't find it. If you know where it is, please direct me to it. If there's no FAQ, I have a few questions:

What is the highest, sustainable BB/100 one is likely to have at 2/4?
How long does a "good run" of cards figure to run (in hands)? 5K? 10K? 20K? More?
Dito for bad.

Also, how long was your longest run of good/bad cards?

Background: Just looked at some stats for my 2/4 play. I've got about 40K hands registered. Overall, I'm about 2BB/100. In the last 20K, I'm about 3.8BB/100. I'm wondering if this is a fluke, or if it's time to move up.

Re: How long can you run good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Background: Just looked at some stats for my 2/4 play. I've got about 40K hands registered. Overall, I'm about 2BB/100. In the last 20K, I'm about 3.8BB/100. I'm wondering if this is a fluke, or if it's time to move up.

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Whatever. It is likely a fluke in the sense that you are probably not a 3.8BB player. It is likely not a fluke in the sense that such things happen to winning players far more often than to losing players. You seem to be a winning player. Sure, why not move up? (Subject to bankroll, willingness to move back down, etc.)

Re: How long can you run good?
 

The long run is long. I've done some simple simulations in Excel and they indicate that even after 50k hands a true break even player can have +1 BB/100 by chance alone.

Conversely, a true 2 BB/100 player can have 1 BB/100 after 50k hands because he is running bad. I wouldn't be surprised to see luck effects of similar magnitude even after 100k hands or more.

However, if you're 2 BB/100 over 40k hands at 2/4, you should consider moving up. It's a decent sample size even if it's not big enough to determine your true win rate accurately.

Re: How long can you run good?
 

You can a 'good run' can alter your stats over long periods of time, as can a bad run. I know alot of winning players at 5/10 and 10/20 who were 2+ BB/100 winners over 60k hands, and were 1 BB/100 players after a nasty 200 BB downswing. Alot of players don't think your 'long term' stats aren't really accurate after 100k hands or so, and even then, variance is still a factor. The more you play, the more accurate your stats are going to be. Over 40k hands, you look to be doing pretty good at 2/4. From the sounds of it, you feel like you are running well. If you have the bankroll, feel free to move up to 3/6 full. Its not that big of a jump, just use table selection a little more carefully.

Re: How long can you run good?
 

As long as they don't read my obit on the news in the morning I am running good. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: How long can you run good?
 

I can run good never, as I Don'tEverRunGood.

Re: How long can you run good?
 

even if you ran just 2BB/100 over 40k hands without the 3.8bb upswing, you should consider taking a shot at at least 3/6. your stats are definately good enough for taking shots.

Re: How long can you run good?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Been searching for the FAQ, can't find it. If you know where it is, please direct me to it. If there's no FAQ, I have a few questions: How long does a "good run" of cards figure to run (in hands)? 5K? 10K? 20K? More?
Dito for bad.


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This is exactly like asking how many times in a row you can flip a coin and it comes out heads. It amazes me how many people dont grasp probability.