Getting played at after a blind steal
 

Villain is 25/10/1.5.

Hero has AKo on the button and raises preflop, only the BB calls.

Flop comes Tc9d2c.

Villain bets, Hero....

Alternatively,

Villain checks, Hero bets, Vilain check raises, Hero...

Re: Getting played at after a blind steal
 

raise both and bet until raised, taking a free showdown

PS - Why are you sitting at a table with a rock?


Lets say you are ahead 30% of the time here, the times you arent you have 10% FE each time you bet or raise against a small PP. A 3 bet and a turn bet mean you fold out 20ish% of hands beating you... if they have an OESD or flush draw they are hitting about 2/5 times, so in this case each bet you get in is profitable. 40% of the time you are beaten with 6 outs to improve, but the FE make this borderline profitable to bet as well. 10% of the time you are beaten drawing dead, and in this case you can fold to the next raise he puts in, losing you only 1.5 BB's

Basically any time he doesnt have you dominated by 2 pair or better, raising seems right.

Re: Getting played at after a blind steal
 

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raise both and bet until raised, taking a free showdown

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That's what I thought, but I just read Short-Handed Poker: The Overcard Quandary Part I and II by Jason Pohl, and he seems to imply that that is a losing proposition against all but the most agressive opponents.

Re: Getting played at after a blind steal
 

Depends.

When he donks the flop, I probably raise most often. If he is big into bet/3betting, I just call. In all honesty, it is probably best to just fold to the donk bet if the donk means he has a pair. However, this gets people to taking shots at you, so you need to only fold occasionaly against opponents whom are likley to have a pair here and push it.

Re: Getting played at after a blind steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
Depends.

When he donks the flop, I probably raise most often. If he is big into bet/3betting, I just call. In all honesty, it is probably best to just fold to the donk bet if the donk means he has a pair. However, this gets people to taking shots at you, so you need to only fold occasionaly against opponents whom are likley to have a pair here and push it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jason Pohl says that even if they lead the flop, or check raise with stuff such as midpair, straight draw, flush draw, and sometimes stuff that you have beat, you are still at a disadvantage on average, and should just fold. Considering sometimes we only have 3 outs, and sometimes we have virtually no outs (reverse domination, or two pair or a set), the times we are ahead don't make up for the times we are behind.

Re: Getting played at after a blind steal
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Depends.

When he donks the flop, I probably raise most often. If he is big into bet/3betting, I just call. In all honesty, it is probably best to just fold to the donk bet if the donk means he has a pair. However, this gets people to taking shots at you, so you need to only fold occasionaly against opponents whom are likley to have a pair here and push it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jason Pohl says that even if they lead the flop, or check raise with stuff such as midpair, straight draw, flush draw, and sometimes stuff that you have beat, you are still at a disadvantage on average, and should just fold. Considering sometimes we only have 3 outs, and sometimes we have virtually no outs (reverse domination, or two pair or a set), the times we are ahead don't make up for the times we are behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on what you mean by sometimes. If it is somebody you aren't going to play with much, who is agressive, and will be betting only strong draws or made hands. Then a muck is best.

I agree.


If it is somebody who could adjust and start testing you, then you just can't fold here too often.

If you are playing 5-10 on party, I think you can fold here fairly consistently. If you dont fold, raise.

blake

Re: Getting played at after a blind steal
 

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post3864412


Hand to demonstrate...

Re: Getting played at after a blind steal
 

In his argument of saying that folding is best against a lead or a check raise, he says that

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The overall EV of calling is calculated by figuring when all 6 overcard outs are clean (2/3 of the time), one of them is counterfeited (1/6th of the time), and when the button is drawing nearly dead (1/6th of the time)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think this is a reasonable estimation? I know a lot of players may take shots with nothing (IE you have 6 clean outs), but if they are doing this, they will tend to do it in the form of leading, rather than check raising.

He also says that if you are in the same situation with a limper and one blind, that a fold is also correct against a lead from either of them, or a check raise, even though the pot is bigger.

Re: Getting played at after a blind steal
 

where is this article? card player?

Re: Getting played at after a blind steal