a great draw
 

Party 3/6 6max

Early in the session... I have been playing extremely tight since I haven't had many cards. Villain is weak and a little loose, but can be spazzy aggressive. Likes to bluff raise and then release. I have been able to get away with a large percentage of steals, either straight up or on the flop... and then I made this play...

I'm dealt 9T crubs and open raise from UTG+1. The BB calls.

Flop comes: 8c7c5d

Villain bets, I raise, he 3bets, I cap.

Turn: 3s

Villain checks.

My plan?

I'm not interested in preflop.

Re: a great draw
 

Check and take the free river, your equity isn't as strong against only one opponent.

Regardless of what you said, the PF raise is very donkish. You can be cold-called with many, many hands here that have you dominated.

Re: a great draw
 

When deciding whether or not to use the free card play I usually try and figure out my fold equity. From your read, you said that he like to reraise and release. Since he didn't release, I'm thinking he actually has a hand here and that our fold equity is pretty small. That would get me towards a check.

Here though, you have a ton of outs. I think your ten is still good, and I'm assuming that straight outs and flush outs are solid. With 16 outs I think I might bet with outs. With a little fold equity plus the outs, it should be an good bet, no?

Re: a great draw
 

even at this table under the same conditions i wouldn't always make this preflop raise. but it happens that i thought this was a good opportunity for a lil variance.

Re: a great draw
 

With your reads do you believe he 3-bet the flop, call a cap, then fold the turn for one bet? It seem pretty unlikely. I'd take my free card.

Re: a great draw
 

A bet can never be that bad here with between 13 and 19 outs here. It can also be very good if we get a 7 or something to fold. With as much equity as we have we're actually only "losing" a third of a BB on every bet that goes in on this street, and risking a third of a BB to steal BB's 2/3 of this 5 BB pot seems worthwhile to me.

Re: a great draw
 

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Likes to bluff raise and then release

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Given this I think the turn is a bet.

Re: a great draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
...we're actually only "losing" a third of a BB on every bet that goes in on this street, and risking a third of a BB to steal BB's 2/3 of this 5 BB pot seems worthwhile to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. help?

Re: a great draw
 

He seems to like his hand enough to call down. I doubt a bet on the turn will get him to fold. But it's not terrible, b/c of all the outs you have.

I would still take my free card. I know your read, but also, if he has been paying any attention, you said you have been playing really tight. Do you think he notices that? Might make it less likely he is trying to make a play at you.

Re: a great draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Likes to bluff raise and then release

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this I think the turn is a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a bluff raise is a little different than a 3 bet. I think we're getting check raised here with this board (who calls a cap and fails to bet the turn?) - unless he's on some kind of club draw, in which case we might be in big trouble.