Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

Villain is 39/10/2.33 after 50 hands. Flop c/r tells me he either has a club or a K, probably a K. Am I wrong to take the line I did?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (7.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.70 BB

Re: Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

It's certainly conceivable that you still have the best hand, but not the 12% or so of the time you need. I'd let it go and not worry too much about it.

Re: Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

Villain could have a big club and be pumping his flushdraw on the flop. I think you need to bet this turn to avoid giving him a free card those times you're ahead. If he raises you have an easy fold.

Re: Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

bet the turn.

Re: Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

Bet the turn and definitely fold the river...If checkraised on the turn I would also let it go barring any crazy reads

Re: Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

I wouldn't put much stock in a 50 hand read. There are a lot more clubs than Ks out there. I'd bet this turn every time.

Re: Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

Gah. Ok.

Re: Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

Not betting the turn was really costly here. Granted, it's unlikely you're ahead but, because the turn was checked through, an aggressive player will be betting any two cards and you have to fold and not see the showdown.

Bet the turn, take a free showdown if offered. Fold to a raise or a river bet.

Re: Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

You can bet the turn and fold to a c/r. If he's got a pair and a club you really don't want him drawing for free. If he flat calls the turn you can bet a safe river, or check behind a scary one (or fold if he bets)

Re: Folded AA on river...evaluate my play
 

New hypothetical. Let's say I'm now OOP. On the flop I bet, villain raises, I 3-bet, call. Turn is the 2nd K, I bet, he calls. What's my river plan?