KTo misses, turn raise.
 

Both villains are unknowns. However, MP has been playing almost all his hands since I got here and has open limped TT in the CO (which he hit his 2 outer on me with..). Pokerace later showed his VPIP to be 80 after 20 hands.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

This is the last bet I am putting in the pot.

EDIT: unless I hit a K or T.

Re: KTo misses, turn raise.
 

I often make plays like this with A-high on a low ragged board - but only when I feel the villain is capable of higher level thinking and figures I have missed the board with my overcards, so there's a decent chance he's making a move. Do you feel this way about this villain?

K-high is a little more tricky, as it even further reduces the range of hands we can beat (assuming we're not bluffing again on the river).


Question is: putting in 2 bets to win 5-6 bets, will K-high showdown to win more than about 1 third of the time here?


It's a very close call.


However, the confounding factor here is that you mentioned you wouldn't put any more bets into this pot... BUT, if he 3-bets the turn, you're getting 9:1 money for a call to potentially improve with a Ten or King. Again, *this* is a very close call here.


In conclusion, it seems like a sequence of *marginal* plays here, each of which barely gain us any EV. This seems like we're pouring in a hella lotta bets into this pot just to try to break even. Accordingly, a turn fold is probably the best play.


Adam