Turn Decision: raise or just call down?
 

I have been getting some really good cards and probably looked too aggressive. The villain recently joined the table. He did not do anything outrages, played pretty tight so far. He tried to bluff me out a couple of hands before by c/r the flop when I raised pf and floped a TPTK. He folded to my 3-bet.
So, anybody raises the turn? Is it close? What cards do you put the villain on?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (15.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 19.25 BB

Re: Turn Decision: raise or just call down?
 

Is the converter right that BB open-folded the river? If it is right, I'd raise the turn, call a 3 bet, and then call the river UI. Assuming MP2 is reasonable, his capping standards are AK, AA-JJ. We'll eliminate AK because I doubt he'd keep playing that aggressively w/ just overs and a gutshot. Toss AA because you have it making it very unlikely. That leaves:

KK--6 ways
QQ--3 ways
JJ--3 ways

So he's just as likely to have KK (in which case you're WA) as QQ/JJ (WB). He's betting aggressively, but I can't say that does anything to tilt my opinion toward a set rather than a pair of K's.

Since thing's look even, and we're getting an overlay from the BB who looks like the ultimate calling station, I'd recommend the turn raise. If he 3 bets you there, then I think we can shift to odds of him having the set as being higher, and just call down (absent the miracle A on the river, which you hit).

Re: Turn Decision: raise or just call down?
 

Looks good to me...

The only hands that beat you on the flop and turn are 9-10, QQ and JJ. Given the pre flop action 9-10 seems much less likely. Given that I think calling on the turn and raising after that 3rd A comes on the river is correct.

Re: Turn Decision: raise or just call down?
 

Im raising the turn, what has you beat here?

Re: Turn Decision: raise or just call down?
 

If this guy is reasonable at all I'd call down from the flop 3-bet. What is all this raising the turn talk? Are you guys putting this guy on a preflop capping range?

Edit: It's possible this is a steal/resteal situation since you guys raised from MP2 and CO, so I think the flop cap is cool, but when he bets into you again on the turn, I think it's calldown time.

Re: Turn Decision: raise or just call down?
 

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River: (15.25 BB) A (3 players)
BB folds,

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I love this.

I go ahead and raise the turn and call a 3-bet. As was said before, his PF capping hands are likely limited to AA-TT and AKs/o, AQs/o. Given his flop play, I think we can thrown out TT and both AKs and AKo, leaving us with AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AQ. He's probably not going nuts with AQ and since we have AA, I'd put him squarely on KK-JJ. Unfortunately he may have played the flop the same with any of them, so your turn raise can narrow his range down. If he 3-bets, you are most likely up against QQ/JJ, if he calls, KK. Also, the BB trying to suck out in there sweetens the pot for you, so keep getting money out of him too.

Re: Turn Decision: raise or just call down?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If this guy is reasonable at all I'd call down from the flop 3-bet. What is all this raising the turn talk? Are you guys putting this guy on a preflop capping range?


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I'd either call the flop 3-bet and auto-raise the turn, or cap the flop and call down. I can't believe I'm saying this, but a turn bet into a flop capper usually means lots of strength.