The Value of Confusion--KQo
 

Someone made a post the other day about the value of using the true donk-bet (check-call flop, lead turn, as opposed to the stop and go) for the primary purpose of confusing your opponent into calling down when you have a very big but very obvious hand. I thought this was a nice example. All critique welcome.

The button appears pretty rocky but pretty weak (16/6/.9).

The pre-flop cold-caller is pretty fishy but not overwhelmingly so.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Deranged is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Deranged raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Pretty Fishy calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333"> Pretty Weak 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Deranged calls, Pretty Fishy calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Deranged checks, Pretty Fishy checks, <font color="#CC3333">Pretty Weak bets</font>, Deranged calls, Pretty Fishy calls.

Turn: (6.70 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Deranged bets</font>, Pretty Fishy folds, Pretty Weak calls.

River: (8.70 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Deranged bets</font>, Pretty Weak calls.

Final Pot: 10.70 BB

P.S. Interesting question: What is the minimum aggression your opponent must have to make a river sexy better than betting out here? I figured with such a rocky villain betting was clearly better.

Re: The Value of Confusion--KQo
 

Was that someone me? I like doing this.

Re: The Value of Confusion--KQo
 

Hmmm I the line is usally take is lead, lead, lead or if I'm raised on the flop lead, turn checkraise. When I lead the flop I'm thinking that they think "That guy can't be leading out with a King, I'm calling down." Your line also is confusing too. If I was in villain's shoes I'd think "geez this guy must be leading with a midpair or something. Call down."

But this guy is a weak rock. I'd only see him calling your turn donk bet with AA QQ and such. I think you're only getting paid when he has these hands. So bet, bet, bet should extract the same value as check/call, lead, lead. Hmm?

Re: The Value of Confusion--KQo
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm I the line is usally take is lead, lead, lead or if I'm raised on the flop lead, turn checkraise. When I lead the flop I'm thinking that they think "That guy can't be leading out with a King, I'm calling down." Your line also is confusing too. If I was in villain's shoes I'd think "geez this guy must be leading with a midpair or something. Call down."

But this guy is a weak rock. I'd only see him calling your turn donk bet with AA QQ and such. I think you're only getting paid when he has these hands. So bet, bet, bet should extract the same value as check/call, lead, lead. Hmm?

[/ QUOTE ]

I almost always used to lead trips and similar big, obvious hands for this reason. I've found that too often my opponents simply just fold out, particularly if they're weak or passive. I generally much prefer the lead here if I think there's any chance I'll get raised, but my opponent is so passive here I think it's unlikely (on another hand he didn't three-bet the river against my river raise holding KJ on a KKQJx board).

Re: The Value of Confusion--KQo
 

river sexy is the new slang for check raise?

Re: The Value of Confusion--KQo
 

Wow that is passive.

Well I guess your line's advantage is that its so seldom used that villain won't know what to think, get confused, and call down out of curiousity. In a few hands I've played villain took such a weird line that I called down thinking "Man I really want to know what kind of hand he's donking the turn with." So hmm.

Re: The Value of Confusion--KQo
 

Sexy is checking raising the river when you were the last aggressor on the turn. Its called the sexy since I seem to get a hard one when I use this line successfully. Almost as orgasmic as a screwplay.