Party 15/30 88 vs. tag
 

This is a TStoneMBD hand I was watching...if for some reason I shouldn't post this, flame me and I wont do it again.

Table is 5-handed.

Villain is 16/9/2.0/7414.

Hero is SB with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG folds, villain raises, hero 3-bets, villain calls.

Flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets, villain raises, hero 3-bets, villain calls.

Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets, villain calls.

River: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero bets, villain folds.

After the flop action and before the turn action, hero looked at his notes for villain and he had "dp" for "doesn't peel". With all the information we have on villain, I'm thinking a river check/call is much better than betting. What worse hands will call? 66 and 55 if villain would play them that way, I guess. But A high and a FD that missed wont call a bet, but may bet if checked to...I guess AQ may call, but I don't know. Plus that river is a bad card for us; I'd hate to be raised. Thoughts?

M

Re: Party 15/30 88 vs. tag
 

Wow, that villain is very tight over a huge sample... I'd be interested in his ATSB before I 3bet 88 here.

Villain appears quite aggressive postflop, so the flop 3bet is okay, but i'd prefer a call down if we were in position so we can guarantee 1 bet goes in on each street and not risk getting raised on the turn.

As you said, the river bet is bad... Villain isn't raising any hands with a 4 or 2 in them preflop, so the only flop pair to be made is a T, while PPs may often fold since the river card is so bad for him given hero's possible hand range...I think check-call is definitely a better play here, it comes off as a busted flush draw which villain may attempt to bet out of the pot if he himself is on a weak holding.

The other possibility is that tstone put villain on either a T or a flush draw, and saw an opportunity to fold a T on the river when the K hits, since hero's "AK" is now ahead in addition to the big PP he is representing...but he'd have to be aware of this player being able to make a tough laydown.

Surf

Re: Party 15/30 88 vs. tag
 

no im glad you posted this hand. keep posting. i like to read about my self because i crave attention.

maybe youre very right about the river bet. i think i risk being bluffraised a little bit and i dont really have much value in a bet. i value bet relentlessly against ace high but i dont think this was a good time for that.

i think one of the biggest reasons to check the river is that villain might actually check behind a ten fearing i have JJ or QQ or a ten myself. surf youre right that villain shouldnt have a 4 or 2 here, so im pretty much hoping he has 66/55/33.

sometimes i wonder why i play so bad. i think checking the river is clearly the correct play analyzing it here but in the heat of battle with little time to think i often goof. another reason why you need to sharpen the blade and not learn at the tables. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

imo, the rest of the hand is extremely standard. i think folding 88 in a 5 handed game with a 2/3 structure is a problem. keep in mind that this is a full table gone short so a 16/9/2 really isnt all that tight, although moreso than average. there are alot of 16/10/2 type players who are deadly.

Re: Party 15/30 88 vs. tag
 

[ QUOTE ]

Wow, that villain is very tight over a huge sample... I'd be interested in his ATSB before I 3bet 88 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are full ring mined stats, not short stats.

Krishan

Re: Party 15/30 88 vs. tag
 

Okay, I wasn't sure what to do in the face of such a tight raise, but if those are his ring stats i'm happy with the 3bet.

Thanks for the clarification.

Surf