Bet my set of Aces on a 3-flush board?
 

I'm CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I open raise, both blinds call.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB bets, I call, SB raises, BB calls, I raise, both call.

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Both check. I figure there's a pretty good chance one of them just made a flush. Do I bet and give the flush a chance to check-raise, or do I check behind?

Also, your reasoning is more important than your answer, so please say why you feel your choice is the best one?

Re: Bet my set of Aces on a 3-flush board?
 

You bet this turn because you are more than likely ahead. Even if someone has a flush, you have 9 outs to improve. Please please please bet this in the future.

Re: Bet my set of Aces on a 3-flush board?
 

I would have raised the flop straight away. But it worked out beautifully.

Why do you think anyone has a flush here?

1. If noone has a flush, you have the best hand by a freaking mile - BET.
2. If noone has the flush, they almost certainly have a draw now. You want to charge them as much to draw to it as possible - BET.
3. If someone has the flush, you will still make the best hand on the river ~22% of the time and you have massive implied odds when this happens - BET.
4. The flush card is just as scary to anyone else who doesn't have one, even hands that have a single [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that have a legitimate chance to outdraw you may fold. - BET.

Many kittens die if you check this turn.

Re: Bet my set of Aces on a 3-flush board?
 

The odds that someone is on a flush draw is never more than fourty percent. With only 3 to the flop it's significantly lower. You have to bet out here; call a check/raise, then call the river U/I.

Re: Bet my set of Aces on a 3-flush board?
 

Bet because they both showed weakness.

BTW, I think not raising the flop the first time the action comes to you is not wise. Then raising it the second time around when you don't expect anyone to fold bloats the pot and helps ensure even a one card spade holder or a gutshot will go to the river with you.

A set is pretty vulnerable on a board like this.

Re: Bet my set of Aces on a 3-flush board?
 

I raise first time around on the flop.

I'm betting in that spot. We have no reason to belive we are losing to a flush right there, and even if we are, we have 10 outs to fill up.

Re: Bet my set of Aces on a 3-flush board?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I raise first time around on the flop.

I'm betting in that spot. We have no reason to belive we are losing to a flush right there, and even if we are, we have 10 outs to fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree

Re: Bet my set of Aces on a 3-flush board?
 

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, I think not raising the flop the first time the action comes to you is not wise. Then raising it the second time around when you don't expect anyone to fold bloats the pot and helps ensure even a one card spade holder or a gutshot will go to the river with you.

A set is pretty vulnerable on a board like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tom,

The pot on the flop is only 6 sb, and I don't think hand protection is more important than building a big pot here.

Top set is far from vulnerable in this spot. Only the flush draw has a good chance to outdraw, and it is not guaranteed we are against a flush draw. Also the action does not suggest that we are facing a gut shot.

I would have probably raised the first time around for value. I would also be delighted that 12 small bets went in on this flop.