Is this a clear fold?
 

40 euro buy-in

Villain 22 700,00
poke1112 2 965,00

Villain just moved to the table, so no reads.

poke1112 was dealt: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

X Fold
Z Fold
Villain Call (50,00)
Y Fold
T Fold
Hero Raise (200,00)
G Fold
U Fold
W Fold
Villain Call (150,00)

Flop 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain Check
poke1112 Bet (475,00)
Villain Call (475,00)

Turn 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain All-In (1 595,00)


This is a pretty common situation - and a boring post I'm sure, but meh. I need to find out.

Re: Is this a clear fold?
 

I think you are facing KQ or QJ a lot of the time. But I think against the total number of his holdings you are probably not quite getting the odds to call.

Re: Is this a clear fold?
 

there's about 1.3 in the pot before his push I think.
There are some hands he could be semi-bluffing with, but the odds aren't great and he plays the hand seemingly passively up to that point while you have been on the attack and have shown no signs of being bluffable. I wouldn't call it a clear or obvious fold, but I would lay it down.

Re: Is this a clear fold?
 

i call. i think you're probably 50% vs. his range here, which i'd include KQ, JQ, KT, JT, and then other more unlikely possibilities, KJ, KK, JJ, TT, club draw, total bluff. it looks like his bet is about potsized, so gettin 2:1 i actually think this is a pretty clear call.

Re: Is this a clear fold?
 

My first reaction was that there aren't many non-bluff hands that you are ahead of here. I then used Poker Stove with the villain's range of JJ+, KT+, QT+ and the hero has 60% equity. Factor in some flush draw bluffs and the equity could be higher. So I'd call.

Re: Is this a clear fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]

My first reaction was that there aren't many non-bluff hands that you are ahead of here. I then used Poker Stove with the villain's range of JJ+, KT+, QT+ and the hero has 60% equity. Factor in some flush draw bluffs and the equity could be higher. So I'd call

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, my initial instinct was 50% which suggested call. and after trying a few ranges in pstove i kept getting 57-61% for different ranges that i felt were reasonable, which means a call here is VERY +EV.

i mean it'd be pretty much the same as folding KK preflop to a huge allin overbet when the guy shows you AK. at least i think folding a 2:1 fav getting about 1:1 should be the same as folding a slightly better than 50:50 shot when getting almost 2:1. is this logic correct?

Re: Is this a clear fold?
 

Villian showed J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I called it in a heartbeat. Probably because I was so mentally prepared to raise all-in if I was checked too, and my instincts just yelled 'DRAW!'.

I felt a little stupid afterwards. I mean, I would not be surprised to see JQ/KQ, but it takes balls to go all-in on that turn, since the board is now really tasty for a preflop raiser and semi-bluffing provide close to 0 in fold equity.