Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

If we define a pandemic as a disease which breaks out suddenly and kills at least 2% of the world's population in a relatively short time (a few months or less), then what is your estimate of the probability that the current bird flu situation will become a pandemic within the next 2 years?

Also, does anyone know of any websites which discuss the probabilites in more than just general and subjective terms?

Re: Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

What is the point of a poll like this? Unless you are polling a bunch of bird biologists, this is retarded.

Re: Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

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What is the point of a poll like this? Unless you are polling a bunch of bird biologists, this is retarded.

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What is the point of a poll like this? Unless you are a bird biologist, answering this is retarded!


There will be a pandemic but more like 0.1% dead and over a longer period. Anyone wnat to start a sweepstake?

Re: Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

Are you aware that I meant 2% of the world's human population and not bird population? The Spanish flu in 1918 killed 3-4% of the people in the world and some very similar stuff is happening right now.

Re: Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

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Are you aware that I meant 2% of the world's human population and not bird population? The Spanish flu in 1918 killed 3-4% of the people in the world and some very similar stuff is happening right now.

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Yes. We are better prepared now, though. Our Government scientist (UK) put deaths if a pandemic results from a of virulent mutation(oops..God designed alteration of animal virus to a human being killing strain to meet some obscure "meaning of the Universe")of the current bird virus.

Re: Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

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…virulent mutation (oops..God designed alteration of animal virus to a human being killing strain to meet some obscure "meaning of the Universe")of the current bird virus.

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An atheist with a sense of humor - thank "God". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

har har ^^^

well over here in America things arent so rosy, as we have finally figured out (duh) that the current administration's absence of domestic policy might just kill of millions of us.

whoopsy.

thank YOU good ol' boy system!

Re: Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

It wont make kill anyone in England. We have already all been killed by mad cow disease.

chez

Re: Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

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It wont make kill anyone in England. We have already all been killed by mad cow disease.

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There's no doubt that there are always faddish things like mad cow disease (shark attacks and the dreaded flesh-eating bacteria come to mind) which gather quite a bit more media attention than is warranted. That said, there's an historical precedent - the 1918 flu outbreak - of an extremely similar virus doing some real damage to humans. (I'm sure you've seen the reports that the reconstructed 1918 flu appears to have been an avian flu and share many characteristics with H5N1.) So I don't think that this is scaremongering to anywhere close to the same degree.

Re: Probability of bird flu pandemic
 

I voted less than 1% does that mean I win?