Maybe I need some help
 

First off, bear with me here Wookie, I know you dont like these kinda threads, but I need some help I think.

This is my last month of play.

http://www.visi.com/~kiemo/temp/winrate_since_sept.jpg

In the last 2 weeks I have posted up my six worst sessions loss wise over 287 session spanning almost a year of play. This all was culminated last night where Party royally kicked my butt to the tune of 65bb.

Prior to 9-9-05 I had 11k hands at 1/2 for 3.5 BB/100 and 30k hands at .5/1 for a bit over 4bb/100, so I think I have a decent knowledge of what I am doing. My numbers for the first 11k were almost identical to the above numbers (except the W$SD which was 8% higher), so my game has not dramatically changed. Also my preflop numbers are a bit low for this forum, but they are in my comfort zone.

Now the downswing in and of itself is probably not a big thing, as others here have done the same thing and gone on even bigger downswings, but am I worried. Maybe I just ran very well for the first 10k hands and I really shouldnt be playing at 1/2. Maybe the downswing is affecting me mentally without my knowledge, ie I am tilt before I even sit at a table. That is the biggest worry I have, as I dont feel like I am tilting - but how do I determine that?.

Rather then post bad beat hands over and over again, I was wondering if a few posters could take a gander at my sessions from last night (little less then 300 hands) and tell me what they see as I dont think I am looking at them with a clear head anymore.

Hand history. See if some of you can spot things that I am missing. Pick out a hand you find interesting or badly played and post it up (there are a few hands in there where I will admit were tilt hands), or just send me a PM.

Re: Maybe I need some help
 

13.78/7.70 <------------------ your problem. also i quickly went through your hands and found this one.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds ...

Re: Maybe I need some help
 

Aiiiieeeee! My eyes! I'm blind! 16:1 with a gutshot to the nuts on the flop and you folded?!

Re: Maybe I need some help
 

You play a small range of hands, and because of that if you suffer even a slightly higher than normal suckout % you can't make it up.

Re: Maybe I need some help
 

I found this tidbit:

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds (including Hero)</font>.

MP1 was 31/12 (not really a significant number of hands, but you should be able to see what he is pretty quickly), MP2 was 77/17 preflop (over 100 hands). You've GOT to give yourself a chance to outplay the donks postflop with a strong preflop hand.

"If you can't spot the donator at the table, it's probably you."

Re: Maybe I need some help
 

First of all, it's probably a lot of variance. But I have no doubt you're making errors, too.

[ QUOTE ]
Also my preflop numbers are a bit low for this forum, but they are in my comfort zone.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be in your comfort zone, but you're on the edge of being out of the profit zone. You cannot expect to do very well in the long run if you are passing up on profitable positions too often. Even compared to the 16/8 game, you're missing out on 2/16 = 12.5% of the profitable spots. That's a HUGE leak.

It's clear that when you play this tight, you basically do not make any gametime adjustments (because you simnply aren't in most of the places where adjustments would be necessary). So while you may have been doing well in the past, as the average player slowly gets better -- tighter and more aggressive (and with all the books/charts/information available, it's actually happening to some extent) -- they are probably catching up to you (not that this is the exact reason for your losses, but it stands as a definite possibility).

Edit: I've debated making this conjecture, and I've decided that I'll be bold. I think your flop aggression is at least 4. This would indicate that you don't call enough on the flop.

Re: Maybe I need some help
 

Yeah we should be seeing a flop here. Also bet big on red and pray for A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Your VPIP/PFR and WTSD are all really low dude. Are the stakes scaring you?

Re: Maybe I need some help
 

You seem to fold a lot of hands that pot odds justify you calling with. Lots of gutshots with overs being folded, similar to the hand Miles posted. I glanced through the first 1/3 of the HH's and found 5 instances where you were justified in calling at a minimum and you folded.

Mix that in with too tight preflop...not a good combination.

Re: Maybe I need some help
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah we should be seeing a flop here. Also bet big on red and pray for A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Your VPIP/PFR and WTSD are all really low dude. Are the stakes scaring you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, I gotta check out Party's new software. It seems like a riot. Odds payed on color?

Re: Maybe I need some help
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah we should be seeing a flop here. Also bet big on red and pray for A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Your VPIP/PFR and WTSD are all really low dude. Are the stakes scaring you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, I gotta check out Party's new software. It seems like a riot. Odds payed on color?

[/ QUOTE ]

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