An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

Villain in this hand is a 34/7/2

Here's my reasoning on the call, and I feel it's important.

On the flop: Villain isn't checking a K on a board this draw heavy. He might check top two pair, but probably not. Therefore, we can remove a K from his likely holdings.

On the turn: Villain could be calling with a number of hands here, a Jack, a naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], some sort of medium pocket pair or possible 55 or 66, or something like 78s.

On the river: Villain probably isn't going to bluff a hand that has show down value. We can therefore remove a hand like AJ or 88 from Villain's possible holdings. We have therefore removed any K, and J, or any medium pocket pair. He could have two pair or a set, but he could be bluffing with a draw that he picked up on the turn. After thinking this through, I decided to call. Is this reasonable?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$100) <font color="#0000FF">(5 handed)</font> link

Button ($236.13)
Hero ($120.85)
BB ($58.30)
UTG ($180.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Button calls $1.00, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, BB calls $4.00, Button calls $4.00.

Flop: ($15.00) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($15.00) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7.00</font>, BB calls $7.00, Button folds.

River: ($29.00) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $15.00</font>, Hero calls $15.00.

Final Pot: $59.00.

Re: An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

Way too much reading into this....your very likely beat. Villian checks any J on the flop and since you were the raiser maybe even any K with only a decent kicker. If he was drawing to the flush he hit it on the turn so your beat there as well (and since you bet for him he'll slow play it).

I don't know why we assume villian picks up a draw on the turn and then bluff bets it? It's more likely villian is thinking like I mentioned above than anything.

Re: An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villian checks any J on the flop and since you were the raiser maybe even any K with only a decent kicker. If he was drawing to the flush he hit it on the turn so your beat there as well (and since you bet for him he'll slow play it).

I don't know why we assume villian picks up a draw on the turn and then bluff bets it? It's more likely villian is thinking like I mentioned above than anything.

[/ QUOTE ]
The premise of my assumption is that he won't bet these hands strongly on the river, he's much more likely to check them behind and see if their good.

As for this...
[ QUOTE ]
Way too much reading into this....your very likely beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm always looking to develop my hand reading ability. It's essential to being a good NL player.

Re: An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

I agree with the hand reading, but I think sometimes we can OVERREAD hands and think we know what villian is holding by going through every possibility and trying to take hands off based on actions. People don't always play by the book, and while putting villian on a hand range is great, it's not the only important thing out there.

As for your assumption, I can see that, but a lot of aggressive players tend to think your only betting or folding and would attempt to go back at this pot especially if you only feel strong enough about your hand to check the river.

Re: An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

It makes sense to me. I probably do the same.

Re: An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

did he have a flush?

Re: An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

and i thought putting people on a range of hands was huge in poker, since it is a big part of your decision making process? i could be wrong...but I'm no paper tiger. reading your opponents is huge

Re: An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

Well it's good that you're thinking through these hands, but it's still quite likely that villian has a J and is afraid of the K. He could also have TT and think that since you didn't bet the turn, he's likely good. I think it's more than 50% that you're beat here.

Re: An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

I was not downplaying reading, but rather saying that sometimes we might give villian too much credit or read into certain actions so much that we talk ourselves out of winning situations.

Re: An exercise in hand reading... Reasonable?
 

No offense, but your hand reading looks like a way to talk yourself into making a call...you are putting your opponent on hands you beat, and are greatly discounting all the hands you don't beat. Also, betting half the pot isn't "betting the river strong." Also, why wouldn't he bet a J here...lord knows you have given him no reasons to think his jack isn't good. IMO you beat a naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] bluff and that is about it.