Why do we win ??
 

This thread about 45 extra chips and using ICM to calculate increase in ROI
LINK

Lead to a reply by Lorinda that looked something like this.

[ QUOTE ]

Most of our edge comes from bubble play.

45 chips doesn't help with Folding Equity to the tune of 5% ROI
.....
This is the major flaw.
Lori


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Does most of our edge come from bubble play ??

It seems to me that most of our edge comes from being tight early. I'll admit that it is not much of an ego booster to think that we win tournies just by folding for 20 minutes but I actually think that it is true.

Most of our edge comes from being foldbots for three levels.

By the bubble there are 4 players left. Our max ROI over many games is less than 25%. I do not have figures on average ITM. So the long term players can add their input.

I really think our edge comes from laying low until it is a four five or six player game. The remaining players are either tight or lucky and when we get aggressive we have an edge against both the tight and the lucky. As long as the lucky are stupid.

It may seem like our advantage is skilled bubble play but I think the fact that we make it to more bubbles is edge enough.

Thoughts, flames ?? Hard data or analysis to support or disprove [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Re: Why do we win ??
 

I would think Lorinda's point is: The t45 is just t45 more once we get to the bubble, which is not significant. The fact that we are at the bubble and better bubble players is why we win. Not the t45.

To your point, laying low gets us there. But how we got there is less significant. 3 others are there with us and they got there via their own path (aggression, luck, 2+2ing, etc), but we fair better because we play the bubble better than the average other three.

Once we are at the bubble we tend to have more 1st than average player. We have more 2nd than average player. Our game makes it this way. We can fold to the button and come in 3rd/4th all day, but then we wouldn't be winning players.

For sure our bubble play is the #1 reason we win. Thank god for it.

Re: Why do we win ??
 

that lay low strategy, then hyper aggro bubble, what i like to call shove botting, will not be effective in the 109s and up. it works great for the 22s, probably the 33s, and to a lesser extent, the 55s. the advantage in the 109s+ is a combination of things. just about everyone knows how to fold there, so you can pick up a LOT of chips playing more pots early. folding for 20 minutes is not why we win. holla

Re: Why do we win ??
 

Lorinda is wrongly assuming we all play middle limits SNGs,if u go up or down suddenly bubble play isnt the main source of income.

Re: Why do we win ??
 

it's not all from being tight

figure out what ur stack will be if u fold the first four levels and 1 person leaves per level...then plug that into icm and it's <.1, which means that we lose equity those games...tho some games we get premium hands, our pps hit sets, etc to give us more equity by that point

but then once blinds are large, we steal and quickly add equity and end up >.1 overall

but folding alone doesn't give us equity because we get 'down to 4 players' or anything...folding takes equity from us...we get a little bit leaked to us from the 6 people who left the game, but we get more taken from us in blinds than is leaked to us

Re: Why do we win ??
 

And I suppose many know how to push there( 109s), right?

Re: Why do we win ??
 

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And I suppose many know how to push there( 109s), right?

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everyone knows how to play at least a decent bubble in the 109s and up. enough so that u cant have much more than around a 7-10% roi perfect pushbotting. u can do quite a bit better if you play an early game. holla