maybe i should start folding sets
 

villain is 50/10/1.1 over 30 hands

my sets all seem to be losing to gutshots today. i saw the flush, obviously, but thought "no [censored] way"

am i spewing or variancing?


PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: pryor15 is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">pryor15 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">pryor15 bets</font>, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">pryor15 bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (6.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">pryor15 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">pryor15 caps</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Re: maybe i should start folding sets
 

You could argue against the river cap but if it's a mistake I don't think it's a big one.

Re: maybe i should start folding sets
 

I had a huge downswing in variance, that was especially noticeable with sets (There was a period of time where I flopped 20 sets, and won with TWO of them). Variance is a bitch. You are spewing capping that river. Just play through it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Next you'll get to the point when your sets improve to boats and you still lose, and then you finally break through and begin to win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: maybe i should start folding sets
 

A4, A5, A9 are very likely combinations that would 3bet you here (9 hands). There's an outside chance at K4, K5, and K9 (I'll call it 9 effective hands worth). There's an outside chance at 44, 55, and 99, which I'll give 4 effective hand's worth. I'm not giving them full value because I'd expect a turn raise from the sets or K's up. That's 22 hands we'll put on one side. You lose to a flush (36 hands), and 32 (16 hands). Either of those were played terribly if that's what he has, so what do we discount them to? We'd have to discount them by about 60% in likelihood in order to have you be ahead of his range the 55% of the time you need to be to cap. Capping the river there is pretty borderline, but it's not a big mistake, since there are still a large number of hands that he could be 3betting with that you beat.

Re: maybe i should start folding sets
 

I don't give nearly as much credit to the backdoor flushes as I would one that had 2 cards on the flop.

I can see a lot of players betting this river as a bluff. The A is a double scare card. I think your raise is probably good if you have a read. If this guy is super passive then I just call his bet.

I do find the cap to be questionable. I would just call his 3-bet. This is a classic better hands won't fold and weaker hands won't call sort of situation I think.

I expect to see the Q-high flush or the wheel a lot here. You might also see another set or the last A. I think you are good here enough to call the 3-bet against a mildy tricky person. Fold to a passive rock unless you need to call for your sanity.

-D

Re: maybe i should start folding sets
 

A4, A5, and A9 are definitely calling a cap, and it's very likely that they would be 3bet by a guy with these stats.

Re: maybe i should start folding sets
 

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qc Qd (three of a kind, queens).
UTG+1 has Ad Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 16.50 BB. </font>

Sometimes sets lose. Deal with it.

But if you do want to start folding sets, let the board know and they'll be glad to add you to their buddy lists.

Re: maybe i should start folding sets
 

[ QUOTE ]

But if you do want to start folding sets, let the board know and they'll be glad to add you to their buddy lists.

[/ QUOTE ]

This may seem like a bit of a stupid question, but I've heard "buddy lists" thrown around on the forum and I was wondering, is there actually any buddy list software for poker sites?

Re: maybe i should start folding sets
 

Aaron,

I know this is off topic, but I have theory question regarding the river bet.

"Why do we (many of us do it) bet the river HU when our opponent has shown a lot of strength and we think that if we get raised it will be bad news."

I think if the raise will mean that we are more likely to be behind, then we should just check-call. This way we don't allow our opponent to get 2 bets in when we are behind.

My point is that it seems like we often bet hoping that our opponent will "just call" in situations where our opponent got the last raise on the turn and is obviously going to bet if we check.

So I think that for the bet/call to be better than the check/call we have to think that a raise by our opponent will imply that our winning chances are around 50%-65%. If there are any higher we should bet-reraise and any lower we should check-call.

Do you agree?

Re: maybe i should start folding sets
 

i think the initial riase is obviously correct on the river. but capping the river is probably a mistake.