Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

Fairly certain I'm gonna take a beat down for this, but pushing on certain flush draws seems to be a predisposition of mine.

205 entries, top 3 get 11500 packages, some cash for 4th - 6th...

We are maybe 10 minutes into the tournament and MP3 has been playing very LAG, so I was not surprised to see him call my 4x BB raise...I expected a call with most any two...

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
UTG+2 (t1280)
MP1 (t1390)
Hero (t1470)
MP3 (t4315)
CO (t1430)
Button (t700)
SB (t2085)
BB (t610)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of t10.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t80</font>, MP3 calls t80, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t250) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1390</font>, MP3 calls t1390, BB calls t530.

Turn: (t3560) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

River: (t3560) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

Final Pot: t3560

Interested in how this applies (or not) to general satellite theory where only a few spots pay off - seems like I needed to get chips early and this seemed like as good a spot as any. Contrast and compere with the whole "put your tournament life at stake" and I'm left with a big idunno.

In the end, pushing on what is at best a coinflip and maybe worse makes this feel like a bad line, but I struggle with "pulling the trigger" to get deep. Help?

Re: Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

why bet $1300 into a pot of 250? i think your starring at a set or a made flush. that leaves 9 outs, not taking into account their possible holdings (set of flush). i think a pot sized bet accomplishes the same thing here, and leaves you with chips to move on.

Re: Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

yep. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why bet $1300 into a pot of 250? i think your starring at a set or a made flush. that leaves 9 outs, not taking into account their possible holdings (set of flush). i think a pot sized bet accomplishes the same thing here, and leaves you with chips to move on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is he up against a set or a flush? Once two players call his push it looks that way, but he had no way to know that.

If you make a pot sized bet, what do you do on the turn or if you are raised?

I think the push is a reasonable play with the nut flush draw plus overcards. You have pot odds, folding equity, and you have a reasonable chance of winning no matter what your opponents have.

If you are not going to push, I would check. You might get a free card. If someone bets, you can decide whether to call or raise allin.

Re: Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

I think if you make a pot sized bet, you learn where you are at. If you are reraised, you are done with the hand IMO. If you are called, I am re-evalu after the turn, probably checking and giving up the hand. Against 1 person, I don't mind the push, when up against 2 others that are telling you they have something, I am less inclined.

Re: Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think if you make a pot sized bet, you learn where you are at. If you are reraised, you are done with the hand IMO. If you are called, I am re-evalu after the turn, probably checking and giving up the hand. Against 1 person, I don't mind the push, when up against 2 others that are telling you they have something, I am less inclined.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once you make a pot sozed bet, you are pot committed to go allin with your strong draw. There is no way I am folding this hand on the flop.

Re: Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

do you think pushing here is better than checking the flop in hopes of a free card? i have a hard time justifying pushing this flop so early where your not desparate.

Re: Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

Thanks very much for responses so far.

Based on my (albeit very brief) read of MP3, I made the following assumptions:

A pot sized bet would either be called or reraised and not folded to.

A call or reraise by MP3 would give me no further information as I had witnessed fearless and unfounded calls by this player for almost every hand of the first few minutes of this tournament (maniac?) only to be payed off at turn or river.

I really only strongly considered two options: the push, or a check-fold (if I whiffed the flop).

The things I am struggling with most are:

I have been in this situation before (LAG/Maniac on my left), and used weak/tight actions to setup for an eventual double-up. I just couldn't get away from the nut flush draw + over cards vs. a range of hands which I estimated to be no higher than TPTK. Why did I pick this spot?

I also feel I badly mangled a portion of misunderstood satellite advise about exploiting marginal edges early in the tournament in order to chip up to one of the few paying spots.

Thanks again for all (and continued I hope) feedback.

Re: Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

there is no such thing as pot committed. i think betting $1300 into $250 is ridiculous. i would agree with the pot sized bet, but if you want to over bet make it $350 or even $500.

at least that way you have options. if somebody comes over the top you can make a pot odds decision. i'm not folding this hand very often, but i won't say never. i don't see any need to put your tournament life on the line with a draw in this situation.

Re: Foxwoods satellite - big mistake?
 

[ QUOTE ]
there is no such thing as pot committed. i think betting $1300 into $250 is ridiculous. i would agree with the pot sized bet, but if you want to over bet make it $350 or even $500.

at least that way you have options. if somebody comes over the top you can make a pot odds decision. i'm not folding this hand very often, but i won't say never. i don't see any need to put your tournament life on the line with a draw in this situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that once more money goes in, you have odds to draw for your flush even if you are against a set or made flush. There is practically no way you can be beaten with this hand. Plus you can't tell if someone reraises allin that they have a huge hand.

You have a strong draw here and it generally should be played aggressively on the flop. You want to either get all the money in or little or no money in, because the draw will be weaker on the turn.

The push looks bad, because you got two caller, but I don't think it is a bad play. You have an excellent chance to take the pot. Someone needs atleast TPGK to call. The pot is a significant portion of your stack, so make a move for it. If you are called, you may be ahead and you have a reasonable chance against anything. Plus you have decent pot odds.