What would you do here?
 

Normally this is an insta muck here for me but the reads on the villains, chip stacks of players, and blinds with respect to the shorties stacks made this hard IMO.

NOTE: These reads are NOT result oriented. I was ending a 3 table set, and this was my only table left therefore I was able to get accurate reads.

Chip leader villain's range here is any pair, any Ace x, King x, high suited..ect. He was very, very aggressive with almost anything. This gave him a nice lead because his luckbox was working hard.

Villain pusher has been pushing a lot the past 10-15 hands, and he has pushed into raises before. Has shown down queen 10, queen 8 suited, ace jack. Got lucky a few times to triple up. I severely doubt he has a PP higher than me here, I see it as two overs.


Chip leader villain will almost certainly call with whatever action I take.

I believe im ahead of both of them at this point, and at worst at a coin flip with the "pusher villain."
I will still have plenty of chips if I win vs chip leader villain but lose to the pusher. If I win against both I have a ginormous chip lead that guarantees me ITM, much less at least 2nd if I catch a bad run.

The concern I have is that Im not desprate for chips here and I can probably sit back and walk ITM.


Risk outweigh reward here???...any comments appreciated


Pokerroom 10+1


Seat 1: 15TIGHT15 ($6,095 in chips)
Seat 4: jkwetch ($590 in chips)
Seat 5: jam_dodgy ($2,570 in chips)
Seat 6: rstulman00 ($1,295 in chips)
Seat 10: HERO [ 9D, 9C ]($4,450 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
rstulman00 posts blind ($75), HERO posts blind ($150).

PRE-FLOP
15TIGHT15 bets $550, jkwetch folds, jam_dodgy bets $2,570 and is all-in, rstulman00 folds, HERO.....

Re: What would you do here?
 

It's still 5-handed.

I overpush.

Re: What would you do here?
 

I did some rough ICM estimates and it looks like the only time your $EV goes up when you call is when you win outright and otherwise it's best to fold. With that in mind against 3 non-paired overcards (likely best-case) and some pairs thrown in you don't win enough to push if you know the chip leader is calling. I fold.

Re: What would you do here?
 

Ok, so we have one instinct push (which I agree with so far), and math telling us to fold, anybody else??

A.K.A...bump